Unit of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Biodemography, Department of Public Health, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark.
Interdisiciplinary Center on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark.
Eur J Public Health. 2021 Jul 13;31(3):554-560. doi: 10.1093/eurpub/ckab012.
As populations age, the possible consequences of increased frailty are a major concern for the health sector. Here, we investigate how life expectancy with and without frailty has changed during a 10-11-year-period across Europe.
The Sullivan method was used to investigate changes in life expectancy with and without frailty in 10 European countries. Frailty status (non-frail, pre-frail and frail) was determined by use of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe Frailty Instrument (SHARE-FI). Data on frailty prevalence was obtained from 21 698 individuals in wave 1 (2004-05) and 38 859 individuals in wave 6 (2015) of the SHARE. Information on mortality was obtained from the Eurostat Database.
In 2015, women aged 70 spent 25.0% (95% CI: 24.0-26.1) of their remaining life expectancy in a frail state, and the number for men was 11.5% (95% CI: 10.7-12.3). Southern Europeans spent 24.2% (95% CI: 22.9-25.4) of their remaining life expectancy in a frail state and the numbers for Central Europeans and Northern Europeans were 17.0% (95% CI: 16.0-17.9) and 12.2% (95% CI: 10.9-13.5), respectively. From 2004-05 to 2015, life expectancy increased by 1.1 years (from 15.3 to 16.4 years) for 70-year-old Europeans. Similarly, non-frail life expectancy increased by 1.1 years (95% CI: 0.8-1.4), whereas no significant changes in life expectancy in frail states were observed.
This study suggests that Europeans today spend more years in a non-frail state than Europeans did 10-11 years ago. Our findings reflect a considerable inequality by gender and region.
随着人口老龄化，衰弱带来的潜在后果成为卫生部门的主要关注点。在此，我们研究了在 10-11 年期间，欧洲各国衰弱患者和非衰弱患者的预期寿命分别发生了怎样的变化。
我们使用 Sullivan 法调查了 10 个欧洲国家衰弱患者和非衰弱患者的预期寿命变化。使用欧洲健康、老龄化和退休调查衰弱量表（SHARE-FI）来确定衰弱状况（非衰弱、衰弱前期和衰弱）。第 1 波（2004-05 年）和第 6 波（2015 年）的 SHARE 中，共有 21698 名个体的衰弱前期患病率数据，38859 名个体的衰弱患病率数据。死亡率信息来自于 Eurostat 数据库。
2015 年，70 岁女性在衰弱状态下度过其剩余预期寿命的 25.0%（95%CI：24.0-26.1），男性这一比例为 11.5%（95%CI：10.7-12.3）。南部欧洲人在衰弱状态下度过其剩余预期寿命的 24.2%（95%CI：22.9-25.4），中部欧洲人和北部欧洲人这一比例分别为 17.0%（95%CI：16.0-17.9）和 12.2%（95%CI：10.9-13.5）。从 2004-05 年到 2015 年，70 岁欧洲人的预期寿命增加了 1.1 年（从 15.3 年增加到 16.4 年）。同样，非衰弱患者的预期寿命增加了 1.1 年（95%CI：0.8-1.4），而衰弱状态下的预期寿命没有显著变化。
本研究表明，与 10-11 年前相比，现在的欧洲人在非衰弱状态下度过的时间更多。我们的研究结果反映了按性别和地区划分的相当大的不平等。
