Ullah Abd, Ahmad Saeed, Rahman Ghaus Ur, Alqarni M M, Mahmoud Emad E
Department of Mathematics, University of Malakand Chakdara, Dir (L), Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Swat, District Swat, Pakistan.
Results Phys. 2021 Apr;23:103913. doi: 10.1016/j.rinp.2021.103913. Epub 2021 Feb 19.
In this paper we consider ant-eating pangolin as a possible source of the novel corona virus (COVID-19) and propose a new mathematical model describing the dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic. Our new model is based on the hypotheses that the pangolin and human populations are divided into measurable partitions and also incorporates pangolin bootleg market or reservoir. First we study the important mathematical properties like existence, boundedness and positivity of solution of the proposed model. After finding the threshold quantity for the underlying model, the possible stationary states are explored. We exploit linearization as well as Lyapanuv function theory to exhibit local stability analysis of the model in terms of the threshold quantity. We then discuss the global stability analyses of the newly introduced model and found conditions for its stability in terms of the basic reproduction number. It is also shown that for certain values of , our model exhibits a backward bifurcation. Numerical simulations are performed to verify and support our analytical findings.
在本文中，我们将食蚁穿山甲视为新型冠状病毒（COVID - 19）的可能来源，并提出了一个描述COVID - 19大流行动态的新数学模型。我们的新模型基于这样的假设：穿山甲和人类种群被划分为可测量的部分，并且还纳入了穿山甲非法交易市场或宿主。首先，我们研究了所提出模型解的存在性、有界性和正性等重要数学性质。在找到基础模型的阈值量后，探索了可能的稳态。我们利用线性化以及李雅普诺夫函数理论，根据阈值量对模型进行局部稳定性分析。然后，我们讨论了新引入模型的全局稳定性分析，并根据基本再生数找到了其稳定性条件。还表明，对于某些值，我们的模型呈现出向后分支现象。进行了数值模拟以验证和支持我们的分析结果。
