Department of Information Engineering, University of Padova, Padova, Italy.
Department of Mathematics "Tullio Levi-Civita", University of Padova, Padova, Italy.
Infect Dis (Lond). 2021 Apr;53(4):243-251. doi: 10.1080/23744235.2021.1877810. Epub 2021 Feb 25.
Italy was the first Western country to be seriously affected by COVID-19, and the first to implement drastic measures, which successfully curtailed the first wave of the epidemic.
To understand which containment measures altered disease dynamics, we estimated change points in COVID-19 dynamics from official Italian data.
We found an excellent correlation between nationwide lockdown and the epidemic peak in late March 2020. Surprisingly, we found a change point in mid-April, which did not correspond to national measures, but may be explained by regional interventions. Change points in regional COVID-19 dynamics correlated well with local distribution of free face masks and regional orders requiring their mandatory use. Regions with no specific interventions showed no change point during April.
Our findings of the observed correlation between face mask use and disease dynamics lend further support to the importance of face masks in addition to lockdowns and other restrictions for the control of COVID-19.
意大利是第一个受到 COVID-19 严重影响的西方国家，也是第一个实施严厉措施的国家，这些措施成功地遏制了疫情的第一波传播。
为了了解哪些遏制措施改变了疾病动态，我们根据意大利官方数据估计了 COVID-19 动态的转折点。
我们发现全国性封锁与 2020 年 3 月下旬的疫情高峰之间存在极好的相关性。令人惊讶的是，我们发现 4 月中旬出现了一个转折点，这与国家措施无关，但可能与地区干预措施有关。区域 COVID-19 动态的转折点与免费口罩的当地分布以及要求强制使用口罩的区域命令密切相关。没有特定干预措施的地区在 4 月份没有出现转折点。
我们发现口罩使用与疾病动态之间存在观察到的相关性，这进一步支持了除封锁和其他限制措施外，口罩对于控制 COVID-19 的重要性。
