College of Pharmacy, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon, USA.
Department of Health Care Administration and Policy, School of Public Health, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA.
Arch Med Res. 2021 Feb;52(2):240-241. doi: 10.1016/j.arcmed.2020.10.012. Epub 2020 Oct 17.
So far, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused less casualty in Eastern Asia areas compared to the other parts of the world. The pattern of less casualty in the pandemic origin has also been observed in the three main flu pandemics in the last century. It is reasonable to speculate that less casualty of COVID-19/flu in the pandemic origin is likely due to the preexisting cross-immunity to some close viruses being more prevalent in those regions. Experts and modelers should scale up the severity of a flu-like viral epidemic to predict its real severity for the rest of the world.
到目前为止，与世界其他地区相比，东亚地区的 COVID-19 大流行造成的死亡人数较少。在上个世纪的三次主要流感大流行中，也观察到了这种大流行起源地死亡人数较少的模式。因此，可以合理推测，COVID-19/流感在大流行起源地造成的死亡人数较少，可能是由于这些地区更普遍存在对一些密切相关病毒的交叉免疫。专家和建模者应该加大类似流感的病毒性流行的严重程度，以预测其对世界其他地区的实际严重程度。
