新冠病毒和流感大流行遵循一种模式：大流行起源地可能存在交叉免疫力，而在更远的地区则会出现更严重的疾病。
COVID-19 and Flu Pandemics Follow a Pattern: A Possible Cross-immunity in the Pandemic Origin and Graver Disease in Farther Regions.
机构信息
College of Pharmacy, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon, USA.
Department of Health Care Administration and Policy, School of Public Health, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA.
出版信息
Arch Med Res. 2021 Feb;52(2):240-241. doi: 10.1016/j.arcmed.2020.10.012. Epub 2020 Oct 17.
Abstract
So far, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused less casualty in Eastern Asia areas compared to the other parts of the world. The pattern of less casualty in the pandemic origin has also been observed in the three main flu pandemics in the last century. It is reasonable to speculate that less casualty of COVID-19/flu in the pandemic origin is likely due to the preexisting cross-immunity to some close viruses being more prevalent in those regions. Experts and modelers should scale up the severity of a flu-like viral epidemic to predict its real severity for the rest of the world.
摘要
到目前为止，与世界其他地区相比，东亚地区的 COVID-19 大流行造成的死亡人数较少。在上个世纪的三次主要流感大流行中，也观察到了这种大流行起源地死亡人数较少的模式。因此，可以合理推测，COVID-19/流感在大流行起源地造成的死亡人数较少，可能是由于这些地区更普遍存在对一些密切相关病毒的交叉免疫。专家和建模者应该加大类似流感的病毒性流行的严重程度，以预测其对世界其他地区的实际严重程度。
相似文献
1
COVID-19 and Flu Pandemics Follow a Pattern: A Possible Cross-immunity in the Pandemic Origin and Graver Disease in Farther Regions.新冠病毒和流感大流行遵循一种模式：大流行起源地可能存在交叉免疫力，而在更远的地区则会出现更严重的疾病。
Arch Med Res. 2021 Feb;52(2):240-241. doi: 10.1016/j.arcmed.2020.10.012. Epub 2020 Oct 17.
2
Lessons from healthcare personnel screening and management during H1N1 pandemic in preparation for the impending COVID-19 pandemic in a tertiary care hospital in India.印度一家三级护理医院在甲型H1N1流感大流行期间对医护人员进行筛查和管理的经验教训，为即将到来的新型冠状病毒肺炎大流行做准备。
Indian J Tuberc. 2020 Dec;67(4S):S122-S127. doi: 10.1016/j.ijtb.2020.07.024. Epub 2020 Jul 29.
3
Lessons to be learnt from 100 year old 1918 influenza pandemic viz a viz 2019 corona pandemic with an eye on NTEP.从1918年流感大流行（距今已有100年）中吸取的经验教训与2019年新冠大流行相关，并着眼于国家结核病消除计划（NTEP）。
Indian J Tuberc. 2020 Dec;67(4S):S132-S138. doi: 10.1016/j.ijtb.2020.09.032. Epub 2020 Oct 8.
4
History repeated: Applying lessons from the 1918 flu pandemic: More than a century later, the flu pandemic still offers key lessons on steps to counter COVID-19, but heeding them will require a sharp course correction in the United States.历史重演：借鉴1918年流感大流行的经验教训：一个多世纪后，流感大流行仍为应对新冠疫情的措施提供了关键经验教训，但美国若要吸取这些教训，需要进行重大的路线调整。
Cancer Cytopathol. 2021 Feb;129(2):97-98. doi: 10.1002/cncy.22408.
5
After SARS-CoV-2, will H5N6 and other influenza viruses follow the pandemic path?在新冠病毒之后，H5N6和其他流感病毒会走上大流行之路吗？
Infez Med. 2020 Dec 1;28(4):475-485.
6
COVID 19 and Spanish flu pandemics: All it changes, nothing changes.新冠疫情和西班牙大流感：一切都在变，又一切都未变。
Acta Biomed. 2020 May 11;91(2):245-250. doi: 10.23750/abm.v91i2.9625.
7
Understanding dynamics of pandemics.理解大流行病的动态。
Turk J Med Sci. 2020 Apr 21;50(SI-1):515-519. doi: 10.3906/sag-2004-133.
8
[The 2020 Corona Pandemic-Beyond Omnipresent Prevention].[2020年新冠疫情——超越无处不在的预防]
NTM. 2020 Jun;28(2):211-217. doi: 10.1007/s00048-020-00256-6.
9
SARS - CoV-2: Reasons of epidemiology of severe ill disease cases and therapeutic approach using trivalent vaccine (tetanus, diphtheria and Bordetella pertussis).SARS-CoV-2：使用三价疫苗（破伤风、白喉和百日咳）治疗严重疾病病例的流行病学原因和方法。
Med Hypotheses. 2020 Aug;141:109779. doi: 10.1016/j.mehy.2020.109779. Epub 2020 Apr 22.
10
Editorial: A Decline in Influenza During the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Emergence of Potential Epidemic and Pandemic Influenza Viruses.社论：新冠大流行期间流感发病率下降及潜在大流行流感病毒的出现
Med Sci Monit. 2021 Oct 4;27:e934949. doi: 10.12659/MSM.934949.
引用本文的文献
1
What Lessons can Be Learned From the Management of the COVID-19 Pandemic?从新冠疫情管理中可以吸取哪些教训？
Int J Public Health. 2025 May 30;70:1607727. doi: 10.3389/ijph.2025.1607727. eCollection 2025.
2
Spatiotemporal variations of "triple-demic" outbreaks of respiratory infections in the United States in the post-COVID-19 era.后新冠疫情时代美国呼吸道感染“三重疫情”的时空变化。
BMC Public Health. 2023 Dec 7;23(1):2452. doi: 10.1186/s12889-023-17406-9.
3
1Menstruation: a possible independent health promoter, aging and COVID-19.月经：一种可能的独立健康促进因素、衰老与新冠病毒疾病
Caspian J Intern Med. 2022;13(Suppl 3):155-160. doi: 10.22088/cjim.13.0.155.
4
Projecting the Combined Health Care Burden of Seasonal Influenza and COVID-19 in the 2020-2021 Season.预测2020-2021年季节性流感和新冠疫情的综合医疗负担
MDM Policy Pract. 2022 Mar 8;7(1):23814683221084631. doi: 10.1177/23814683221084631. eCollection 2022 Jan-Jun.
5
Will they, or Won't they? Examining patients' vaccine intention for flu and COVID-19 using the Health Belief Model.他们会接种吗，还是不会？运用健康信念模型审视患者接种流感疫苗和新冠疫苗的意愿。
Res Social Adm Pharm. 2021 Sep;17(9):1596-1605. doi: 10.1016/j.sapharm.2020.12.012. Epub 2020 Dec 30.
本文引用的文献
1
Increased Risk of Hospitalization and Death in Patients with COVID-19 and Pre-existing Noncommunicable Diseases and Modifiable Risk Factors in Mexico.墨西哥患有 COVID-19 及既往非传染性疾病和可改变的危险因素的患者住院和死亡风险增加。
Arch Med Res. 2020 Oct;51(7):683-689. doi: 10.1016/j.arcmed.2020.07.003. Epub 2020 Jul 22.
2
SARS-CoV-2-reactive T cells in healthy donors and patients with COVID-19.SARS-CoV-2 反应性 T 细胞在健康供体和 COVID-19 患者中的研究。
Nature. 2020 Nov;587(7833):270-274. doi: 10.1038/s41586-020-2598-9. Epub 2020 Jul 29.
3
Pre-existing immunity to SARS-CoV-2: the knowns and unknowns.SARS-CoV-2 预先存在的免疫力：已知和未知。
Nat Rev Immunol. 2020 Aug;20(8):457-458. doi: 10.1038/s41577-020-0389-z.
4
Obesity and COVID-19: The mTOR pathway as a possible culprit.肥胖与2019冠状病毒病：mTOR信号通路或为潜在罪魁祸首。
Obes Rev. 2020 Sep;21(9):e13084. doi: 10.1111/obr.13084. Epub 2020 Jun 23.
5
The epidemiology and clinical impact of pandemic influenza.大流行性流感的流行病学及临床影响。
Vaccine. 2003 May 1;21(16):1762-8. doi: 10.1016/s0264-410x(03)00069-0.
6
Emerging infections: pandemic influenza.新发传染病：大流行性流感
Epidemiol Rev. 1996;18(1):64-76. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.epirev.a017917.
Zotero 插件