MACSI, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Limerick, Limerick, Ireland.
PLoS One. 2021 Mar 3;16(3):e0246698. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0246698. eCollection 2021.
In all competitions where results are based upon an individual's performance the question of whether the outcome is a consequence of skill or luck arises. We explore this question through an analysis of a large dataset of approximately one million contestants playing Fantasy Premier League, an online fantasy sport where managers choose players from the English football (soccer) league. We show that managers' ranks over multiple seasons are correlated and we analyse the actions taken by managers to increase their likelihood of success. The prime factors in determining a manager's success are found to be long-term planning and consistently good decision-making in the face of the noisy contests upon which this game is based. Similarities between managers' decisions over time that result in the emergence of 'template' teams, suggesting a form of herding dynamics taking place within the game, are also observed. Taken together, these findings indicate common strategic considerations and consensus among successful managers on crucial decision points over an extended temporal period.
在所有基于个人表现的竞赛中，都会出现结果是技能还是运气的问题。我们通过对大约 100 万名参加梦幻英超联赛（Fantasy Premier League）的选手的大量数据集进行分析来探讨这个问题。梦幻英超联赛是一种在线幻想运动，经理们从英格兰足球联赛中选择球员。我们表明，多个赛季中经理的排名是相关的，我们分析了经理们为提高成功几率而采取的行动。决定经理成功的主要因素是长期规划和面对基于嘈杂比赛的一贯良好决策。我们还观察到，随着时间的推移，经理们的决策之间出现了相似之处，导致“模板”团队的出现，这表明在游戏中存在一种羊群动态。总的来说，这些发现表明，在一个较长的时间内，成功的经理们在关键决策点上存在共同的战略考虑因素和共识。
