Institute for Disaster Management, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30606, USA.
Department of Health Policy and Management, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Feb 11;18(4):1740. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18041740.
The human casualties from simulated nuclear detonation scenarios in New Delhi, India are analyzed, with a focus on the distribution of casualties in urban environments and the theoretical application of a nuclear-specific triage system with significant innovation in interdisciplinary disaster management applicable generally to urban nuclear detonation medical response. Model estimates of nuclear war casualties employed ESRI's ArcGIS 9.3, blast and prompt radiation were calculated using the Defense Nuclear Agency's WE program, and fallout radiation was calculated using the Defense Threat Reduction Agency's (DTRA's) Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) V404SP4, as well as custom GIS and database software applications. ESRI ArcGISTM programs were used to calculate affected populations from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory's LandScan 2007 Global Population Dataset for areas affected by thermal, blast and radiation data. Trauma, thermal burn, and radiation casualties were thus estimated on a geographic basis for New Delhi, India for single and multiple (six) 25 kt detonations and a single 1 mt (1000 kt) detonation. Major issues related to the emergency management of a nuclear incident are discussed with specific recommendations for improvement. The consequences for health management of thermal burn and radiation patients is the worst, as burn patients require enormous resources to treat, and there will be little to no familiarity with the treatment of radiation victims. Of particular importance is the interdisciplinary cooperation necessary for such a large-scale emergency response event, which would be exemplified by efforts such as the application of a Nuclear Global Health Workforce.
分析了印度新德里模拟核爆炸场景中的人员伤亡情况，重点关注城市环境中伤亡人员的分布情况，以及在核特定分诊系统方面的理论应用，该系统在跨学科灾害管理方面具有重大创新，可普遍适用于城市核爆炸医疗应对。核战争伤亡模型估计采用 ESRI 的 ArcGIS 9.3 进行，爆炸和即时辐射使用国防核局的 WE 程序进行计算，放射性沉降使用国防威胁降低局（DTRA）的危害预测和评估能力（HPAC）V404SP4 进行计算，以及自定义 GIS 和数据库软件应用程序。ESRI ArcGIS 程序用于根据橡树岭国家实验室的 LandScan 2007 全球人口数据集，计算受热力、爆炸和辐射数据影响的地区的人口。因此，对印度新德里的单一和多重（六）25 千吨爆炸和单一 1 兆吨（1000 千吨）爆炸进行了基于地理的创伤、热力烧伤和辐射伤亡估计。讨论了与核事故应急管理相关的主要问题，并提出了具体的改进建议。热力烧伤和辐射患者的健康管理后果最为严重，因为烧伤患者需要大量资源进行治疗，而且对辐射受害者的治疗几乎没有熟悉度。特别重要的是，这种大规模应急响应事件所需的跨学科合作，例如应用核全球卫生劳动力的努力就是一个很好的例子。
