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欧洲国家与新冠疫情负担累积过程相关的流行病学和临床因素的聚类分析。

A cluster analysis of epidemiological and clinical factors associated with the accumulation process of the burden of COVID-19 in European countries.

作者信息

Shojaee Sajad, Eslami Pegah, Dooghaie Moghadam Arash, Pourhoseingholi Mohamad Amin, Ashtari Sara, Vahedian-Azimi Amir, Zali Mohammad Reza

机构信息

Basic and Molecular Epidemiology of Gastrointestinal Disorders Research Center, Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran..

Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases Research Center, Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran. .

出版信息

Acta Biomed. 2020 Nov 10;92(1):e2021022. doi: 10.23750/abm.v92i1.10090.

Abstract

Background and aim of the work European COVID-19 statistics showed differentiation between mortality and new cases. Some studies suggested several factors including migration, cancer incidence, life expectancy and health system capacity maybe associated with differentiations. Up to now, impact of those factors in different European societies is not discussed and compared. Aim of the present study was to perform the cluster analysis in European countries in attention to clinical and epidemiological factors due to covid-19. Methods We collected some appropriate extreme data of COVID-19 to access the situations by ANOVA post-hoc test in 3 scenarios, as well as to estimate regression coefficients in simple linear regression, and a cluster analysis using average linkage. Covid-19 Statistics were considered in all analyses until April 24, 2020. Results Among 39 European countries, several countries reported highest rate of confirmed cases included of Italy (current statues=2270.52) and Spain (current status=2616.24). The highest rate of mortality was seen in France (current status=242.16), Italy (current status=305.52). Life expectancy (female) (P=0.01, 95%Cl=1521.27,15264.58), migration (P<0.001, 95%Cl=41.42,96.72) had significant association with confirmed cases and death. Overall cancer death (P<0.001, 95%Cl=0.36,0.68; P<0.001, 95%Cl=0.01,0.07) and lung cancer death (P<0.001, 95%Cl=1.97,3.56; P<0.001, 95%Cl=0.09,0.37) associated with confirmed cases and mortality, too. We were also determined 5 clusters which more than 30 countries were categorized in the first cluster. Conclusions Demographic factors, including population, life expectancy and migration, underlying disorders, such as several types of cancers, especially lung cancers lead to various distribution of COVID-19 in terms of prevalence and mortality, across European counties.

摘要

研究背景与目的 欧洲新冠疫情统计数据显示死亡率和新增病例数存在差异。一些研究表明,包括移民、癌症发病率、预期寿命和卫生系统能力等几个因素可能与这种差异有关。到目前为止,尚未对这些因素在不同欧洲社会中的影响进行讨论和比较。本研究的目的是在关注新冠疫情临床和流行病学因素的情况下,对欧洲国家进行聚类分析。

方法 我们收集了一些合适的新冠疫情极端数据,通过方差分析事后检验在三种情况下评估情况,并在简单线性回归中估计回归系数,以及使用组间平均连接法进行聚类分析。在所有分析中均采用截至2020年4月24日的新冠疫情统计数据。

结果 在39个欧洲国家中,包括意大利(当前病例数=2270.52)和西班牙(当前病例数=2616.24)在内的几个国家报告的确诊病例率最高。死亡率最高的是法国(当前病例数=242.16)、意大利(当前病例数=305.52)。预期寿命(女性)(P=0.01,95%置信区间=1521.27,15264.58)、移民(P<0.001,95%置信区间=41.42,96.72)与确诊病例和死亡有显著关联。总体癌症死亡(P<0.001,95%置信区间=0.36,0.68;P<0.001,95%置信区间=0.01,0.07)和肺癌死亡(P<0.001,95%置信区间=1.97,3.56;P<0.001,95%置信区间=0.09,0.37)也与确诊病例和死亡率相关。我们还确定了5个聚类,其中30多个国家被归为第一类。

结论 人口统计学因素,包括人口、预期寿命和移民,以及潜在疾病,如几种类型的癌症,尤其是肺癌,导致新冠疫情在欧洲各国的患病率和死亡率方面呈现出不同分布。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7cfc/7975970/f725ae621c77/ACTA-92-22-g001.jpg

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