Akdeniz University, Kampus, Antalya, 07070, Turkey.
J Med Virol. 2020 Sep;92(9):1511-1517. doi: 10.1002/jmv.26035. Epub 2020 Jun 2.
The new coronavirus (COVID-19) infection reported in China in December 2019 has become a pandemic in a few weeks, affecting the entire world. In this respect, it is crucial to determine the case-increase, case-fatality, and case-recovery rates to control COVID-19. In this study, the case-increase, case-fatality, and case-recovery rates of COVID-19 in 36 European countries were analyzed with the meta-analysis method using data released by the health organizations and WHO. The data were obtained from the website of health organizations of 36 European countries and the website of WHO until 11 May 2020. The analyses were carried out on 1 744 704 COVID-19-diagnosed cases in 36 European countries. The case-increase, case-fatality and case-recovery rates of COVID-19 were calculated using 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), single-arm meta-analysis, cross-temporal meta-analysis, and meta-regression random-effects model. The standardized case-increase rate of COVID-19 is 5% (95% CI [0.040, 0.063]) and the average case-increase rate in European countries has started to decline by around 3% (95% CI [0.047, 0.083]) weekly. The countries with the highest rate of case increase are Belgium, Sweden, Russia, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. Although the case-fatality rate of COVID-19 patients was 4.5% as of May 11 (95% CI [0.037-0.055]), this rate is 6.3% (95% CI [0.047, 0.083]) in standardized time (6th week). The case-recovery rates of patients are 46% (95% CI [0.376-0.547]). This study presents important results regarding the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. Although the rate of increase in new COVID-19 cases has dropped, there is not much decline in the case-fatality rates and no increase in case-recovery rates. The case-fatality rate of COVID-19 in Europe was estimated to be in the range of 4% to 4.5% and a minimum of 4 weeks (as of 11 May) is expected to have the figure below 1% in a country with an average case-increase rate. Monitoring case fatalities in Belgium, the Netherlands and Sweden, and treatment successes in Germany and Austria play a role of utmost importance.
2019 年 12 月在中国报告的新型冠状病毒（COVID-19）感染已在数周内成为大流行，影响了整个世界。在这方面，确定病例增长率、病死率和病例治愈率对于控制 COVID-19 至关重要。在这项研究中，使用卫生组织发布的数据，采用荟萃分析方法分析了 36 个欧洲国家的 COVID-19 病例增长率、病死率和治愈率。数据来自 36 个欧洲国家卫生组织的网站和世卫组织的网站，直至 2020 年 5 月 11 日。对 36 个欧洲国家的 1744704 例 COVID-19 确诊病例进行了分析。使用 95%置信区间（95%CI）、单臂荟萃分析、跨时间荟萃分析和荟萃回归随机效应模型计算 COVID-19 的病例增长率、病死率和治愈率。COVID-19 的标准化病例增长率为 5%（95%CI [0.040，0.063]），欧洲国家的平均病例增长率每周下降约 3%（95%CI [0.047，0.083]）。病例增长率最高的国家是比利时、瑞典、俄罗斯、荷兰和英国。尽管截至 5 月 11 日 COVID-19 患者的病死率为 4.5%（95%CI [0.037-0.055]），但标准化时间（第 6 周）的病死率为 6.3%（95%CI [0.047，0.083]）。患者的病例治愈率为 46%（95%CI [0.376-0.547]）。本研究提供了有关欧洲 COVID-19 大流行的重要结果。尽管新的 COVID-19 病例增长率有所下降，但病死率下降幅度不大，病例治愈率也没有增加。欧洲 COVID-19 的病死率估计在 4%至 4.5%之间，预计在平均病例增长率较低的国家，至少在 4 周（截至 5 月 11 日）后病死率将低于 1%。监测比利时、荷兰和瑞典的病死率以及德国和奥地利的治疗成功情况至关重要。
