China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi, 710061, PR China.
AI Application Research Center, Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd. Shenzhen, Guangdong, 518000, PR China.
Public Health. 2021 Apr;193:17-22. doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2020.12.018. Epub 2021 Feb 3.
As China is facing a potential second wave of the epidemic, we reviewed and evaluated the intervention measures implemented in a major metropolitan city, Shenzhen, during the early phase of Wuhan lockdown.
Based on the classic SEITR model and combined with population mobility, a compartmental model was constructed to simulate the transmission of COVID-19 and disease progression in the Shenzhen population.
Based on published epidemiological data on COVID-19 and population mobility data from Baidu Qianxi, we constructed a compartmental model to evaluate the impact of work and traffic resumption on the epidemic in Shenzhen in various scenarios.
Imported cases account for most (58.6%) of the early reported cases in Shenzhen. We demonstrated that with strict inflow population control and a high level of mask usage after work resumption, various resumptions resulted in only an insignificant difference in the number of cumulative infections. Shenzhen may experience this second wave of infections approximately two weeks after the traffic resumption if the incidence risk in Hubei is high at the moment of resumption.
Regardless of the work resumption strategy adopted in Shenzhen, the risk of a resurgence of COVID-19 after its reopening was limited. The strict control of imported cases and extensive use of facial masks play a key role in COVID-19 prevention.
随着中国面临潜在的第二波疫情，我们回顾和评估了在武汉封城初期，深圳市所采取的干预措施。
基于经典的 SEITR 模型，并结合人口流动情况，构建了一个房室模型来模拟 COVID-19 在深圳人群中的传播和疾病进展。
基于已发表的 COVID-19 流行病学数据和百度迁徙的人口流动数据，我们构建了一个房室模型，以评估在不同情景下，工作和交通恢复对深圳疫情的影响。
输入性病例占深圳早期报告病例的大多数（58.6%）。我们的研究表明，在严格的入境人口控制和高口罩使用率的前提下，各种恢复措施对累计感染人数的影响仅略有差异。如果在交通恢复时湖北的发病率较高，深圳可能会在交通恢复后的大约两周内经历第二次感染高峰。
无论深圳市采取何种复工策略，复工后 COVID-19 再次爆发的风险都是有限的。严格控制输入性病例和广泛使用口罩对 COVID-19 的防控起着关键作用。
