State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China.
School of Veterinary Medicine, Murdoch University, Perth, WA, Australia; China Animal Health and Epidemiology Center, Qingdao, Shandong, China.
Prev Vet Med. 2021 May;190:105317. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2021.105317. Epub 2021 Mar 5.
The coinfection of swine influenza (SI) strains and avian/human-source influenza strains in piggeries can contribute to the evolution of new influenza viruses with pandemic potential. This study analyzed surveillance data on SI in south China and explored the spatial predictor variables associated with different influenza infection scenarios in counties within the study area. Blood samples were collected from 7670 pigs from 534 pig farms from 2015 to 2017 and tested for evidence of infection with influenza strains from swine, human and avian sources. The herd prevalences for EA H1N1, H1N1pdm09, classic H1N1, HS-like H3N2, seasonal human H1N1 and avian influenza H9N2 were 88.5, 64.5, 60.3, 57.8, 12.9 and 10.3 %, respectively. Anthropogenic factors including detection frequency, chicken density, duck density, pig density and human population density were found to be better predictor variables for three influenza infection scenarios (infection with human strains, infection with avian strains, and coinfection with H9N2 avian strain and at least one swine strain) than were meteorological and geographical factors. Predictive risk maps generated for the four provinces in south China highlighted that the areas with a higher risk of the three infection scenarios were predominantly clustered in the delta area of the Pearl River in Guangdong province and counties surrounding Poyang Lake in Jiangxi province. Identification of higher risk areas can inform targeted surveillance for influenza in humans and pigs, helping public health authorities in designing risk-based SI control strategies to address the pandemic influenza threat in south China.
猪流感（SI）株与禽源/人源流感株在猪圈中的共同感染可促进具有大流行潜力的新流感病毒的进化。本研究分析了华南地区 SI 的监测数据，并探讨了与研究区域内不同县流感感染情况相关的空间预测变量。从 2015 年至 2017 年，从 534 个养猪场的 7670 头猪采集血液样本，检测猪、人源和禽源流感株的感染证据。EA H1N1、H1N1pdm09、经典 H1N1、HS 样 H3N2、季节性人源 H1N1 和禽源 H9N2 的畜群流行率分别为 88.5%、64.5%、60.3%、57.8%、12.9%和 10.3%。人为因素，包括检出率、鸡密度、鸭密度、猪密度和人口密度，被发现是三种流感感染情况（感染人源株、感染禽源株、感染 H9N2 禽源株和至少一种猪源株）的更好预测变量，而气象和地理因素则不然。针对华南四省生成的预测风险图突出显示，三种感染情况风险较高的地区主要集中在广东省珠江三角洲和江西省鄱阳湖周边的县。识别高风险地区可以为人类和猪流感的有针对性监测提供信息，帮助公共卫生当局设计基于风险的 SI 控制策略，以应对华南地区的大流行性流感威胁。
