基于原始数据对新冠病毒病真实规模的现象学估计。
A phenomenological estimate of the true scale of CoViD-19 from primary data.
作者信息
Palatella Luigi, Vanni Fabio, Lambert David
机构信息
Liceo Scientifico Statale "C. De Giorgi", Lecce, Italy.
Sciences Po, OFCE, France.
出版信息
Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2021 May;146:110854. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.110854. Epub 2021 Mar 14.
Abstract
Estimation of the prevalence of undocumented SARS-CoV-2 infections is critical for understanding the overall impact of CoViD-19, and for implementing effective public policy intervention strategies. We discuss a simple yet effective approach to estimate the true number of people infected by SARS-CoV-2, using raw epidemiological data reported by official health institutions in the largest EU countries and the USA.
摘要
估计未记录的新冠病毒感染流行率对于了解新冠疫情的总体影响以及实施有效的公共政策干预策略至关重要。我们讨论一种简单而有效的方法，利用欧盟最大国家和美国官方卫生机构报告的原始流行病学数据来估计新冠病毒实际感染人数。
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