Department of Pediatrics, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 210029, China.
Neonatal Department, Obstetrics and Gynecology Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai 200011, China.
Biomed Res Int. 2021 Mar 11;2021:7264623. doi: 10.1155/2021/7264623. eCollection 2021.
The research analyzed a group of patients to develop a statistical nomogram and a web-based survival rate predictor for the comprehensive estimate of the overall survival (OS) of children with acute myeloid leukemia.
Between 1999 to 2015, we used the Therapeutically Applicable Research to Generate Effective Treatments (TARGET) database to evaluate and randomly divide 440 children diagnosed with AML into the population of training ( = 309) and validation ( = 131). The analysis of Lasso Cox was used to identify separate predictive variables. We have used essential forecasting considerations to construct a nomogram and a web-based calculator focused on Cox regression analysis. Nomogram validation was tested through discrimination and calibration.
Compared to the multivariate training cohort models, a nomogram integrating gender, age of diagnose, WBC at diagnosis, bone marrow leukemic blast percentage, and chromosomal abnormalities [(8; 21), inv(16)] were designed for the prediction of OS. We also developed a predictive survival nomogram and a web-based calculator. C-indexes validated internally and checked externally were 0.747 and 0.716. The calibration curves have shown that the nomogram might accurately forecast 3-year and 5-year OS.
A nomogram effectively predicts survival in children with AML. This prognostic model can be used in clinical practice.
本研究分析了一组患者，旨在开发一个统计列线图和一个基于网络的生存率预测模型，以全面评估儿童急性髓系白血病的总生存率（OS）。
1999 年至 2015 年，我们使用治疗性应用研究生成有效治疗（TARGET）数据库来评估和随机将 440 名诊断为 AML 的儿童分为训练人群（=309）和验证人群（=131）。采用 Lasso Cox 分析来识别独立的预测变量。我们使用了基本的预测考虑因素来构建一个列线图和一个基于 Cox 回归分析的网络计算器。通过区分度和校准来验证列线图的验证。
与多变量训练队列模型相比，一个整合了性别、诊断时年龄、诊断时白细胞计数、骨髓白血病原始细胞百分比和染色体异常[（8；21），inv（16）]的列线图被设计用于预测 OS。我们还开发了一个预测生存的列线图和一个基于网络的计算器。内部验证和外部验证的 C 指数分别为 0.747 和 0.716。校准曲线表明，该列线图可以准确预测 3 年和 5 年的 OS。
列线图可有效预测儿童 AML 的生存情况。该预后模型可用于临床实践。
