Tan Shukui, Zhang Maomao, Wang Ao, Ni Qianlin
College of Public Administration, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430079, China.
School of Civil Engineering, University of South China, Hengyang 421001, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Mar 1;18(5):2387. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18052387.
With the rapid development of the social economy, factors of social and economic development in China's rural areas have been continuously reorganized, and the pattern and distribution of rural residential areas have undergone significant changes. In rural areas, there have been many peculiar phenomena of "reducing people but not reducing land in rural areas, which has caused tremendous pressure on land resource protection. We used geographic detectors and a geographically temporally weighted regression model (GTWR) to explore the rural settlements' evolution and driving mechanism in Hubei Province from 1990 to 2015. The results show that the kernel density of rural settlements decreased from 1.62 villages/km in 1990 to 1.60 villages/km in 2015. The scale of rural residential patches has obvious regional differentiation characteristics. From southeast to northwest, there is a wave-like distribution structure of "high-low-high-low-high", and the clustering characteristics of "cold and hot spots" are strengthened with time. Based on GTWR analysis, the total rural population, total power of agricultural machinery, and rural electricity consumption have promoted the expansion of rural settlements, with the regression coefficients 0.096, 0.484, and 0.878, respectively. Cultivated land, agricultural output value, and rural labor force have negative impacts on the expansion, the regression coefficients of the village were -0.584, -0.510, and -0.109, respectively.
随着社会经济的快速发展，我国农村地区社会经济发展要素不断重组，农村居民点格局和分布发生了显著变化。农村出现了诸多“农村人减地不减”的奇特现象，给土地资源保护带来了巨大压力。我们运用地理探测器和地理时空加权回归模型（GTWR），对1990年至2015年湖北省农村居民点演变及驱动机制进行了探究。结果表明，农村居民点核密度从1990年的1.62个/平方公里降至2015年的1.60个/平方公里。农村居民点斑块规模具有明显的区域分异特征。从东南向西北呈现“高-低-高-低-高”的波浪状分布结构，且“冷热点”集聚特征随时间增强。基于GTWR分析，农村总人口、农业机械总动力和农村用电量对农村居民点扩张起到了推动作用，回归系数分别为0.096、0.484和0.878。耕地、农业产值和农村劳动力对扩张具有负面影响，回归系数分别为-0.584、-0.510和-0.109。
