Tobías Aurelio, Molina Tomàs, Rodrigo Mario, Saez Marc
Institute of Environmental Assessment and water Research (IDAEA), Spanish Council for Scientific Research (CSIC), Barcelona, Spain.
Department of Applied Physics, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.
One Health. 2021 Jun;12:100239. doi: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2021.100239. Epub 2021 Mar 29.
The transmission of coronaviruses can be affected by several factors, including the climate. Due to the rapid spread of COVID-19 and the urgent need for rapid responses to contain the pandemic, it is essential to understand the role that weather conditions on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We evaluate the influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of COVID-19 during the first wave of the epidemic in Catalonia. We conducted a geographical analysis at the county level to evaluate the association between mean temperature, absolute humidity, solar radiation, and the cumulative incidence of COVID-19. Next, we used a time-series design to assess the short-term effects of meteorological factors on the daily incidence of COVID-19. We found a geographical association between meteorological factors and the cumulative incidence of COVID-19, from the end of March to June 2020, and a lesser extent in the short-term on the daily incidence during the first wave of the epidemic in Spain. Our findings suggest that warm and wet climates may reduce the incidence of COVID-19 in Catalonia. However, policy makers must interpret with caution any COVID-19 risk predictions based on climate information alone.
冠状病毒的传播会受到多种因素的影响，包括气候。由于新冠病毒病（COVID-19）的迅速传播以及迫切需要迅速做出反应以遏制疫情，了解天气状况对严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）传播的作用至关重要。我们评估了加泰罗尼亚第一波疫情期间气象因素对COVID-19发病率的影响。我们在县级层面进行了地理分析，以评估平均温度、绝对湿度、太阳辐射与COVID-19累计发病率之间的关联。接下来，我们采用时间序列设计来评估气象因素对COVID-19每日发病率的短期影响。我们发现，在2020年3月底至6月期间，气象因素与COVID-19累计发病率之间存在地理关联，并且在西班牙第一波疫情期间，气象因素对每日发病率的短期影响较小。我们的研究结果表明，温暖潮湿的气候可能会降低加泰罗尼亚COVID-19的发病率。然而，政策制定者必须谨慎解读仅基于气候信息的任何COVID-19风险预测。
