Valero Carmen, Barba Raquel, Marcos Daniel Pablo, Puente Nuria, Riancho José Antonio, Santurtún Ana
Departamento de Medicina Interna, Hospital Universitario Marqués de Valdecilla, IDIVAL, Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Spain.
Unidad de Medicina Legal, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Spain.
Med Clin (Engl Ed). 2022 Sep 23;159(6):255-261. doi: 10.1016/j.medcle.2021.10.018. Epub 2022 Aug 30.
Several studies have analyzed the influence of meteorological and geographical factors on the incidence of COVID-19. Seasonality could be important in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. This study aims to evaluate the geographical pattern of COVID-19 in Spain and its relationship with different meteorological variables.
A provincial ecological study analyzing the influence of meteorological and geographical factors on the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 in the 52 (24 coastal and 28 inland) Spanish provinces during the first three waves was carried out. The cumulative incidence was calculated with data from the National Statistical Institute (INE) and the National Epidemiological Surveillance Network (RENAVE), while the meteorological variables were obtained from the Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET).
The total cumulative incidence, in all three waves, was lower in the coastal provinces than in the inland ones (566 ± 181 vs. 782 ± 154; = 2.5 × 10). The cumulative incidence correlated negatively with mean air temperature (r = -0.49; = 2.2 × 10) and rainfall (r = -0.33; = .01), and positively with altitude (r = 0.56; = 1.4 × 10). The Spanish provinces with an average temperature <10 °C had almost twice the cumulative incidence than the provinces with temperatures >16 °C. The mean air temperature and rainfall were associated with the cumulative incidence of COVID-19, regardless of other factors (Beta Coefficient of -0.62; = 3.7 × 10 and -0.47; = 4.2 × 10 respectively).
Meteorological and geographical factors could influence the evolution of the pandemic in Spain. Knowledge regarding the seasonality of the virus would help to predict new waves of COVID-19 infections.
多项研究分析了气象和地理因素对新冠病毒病（COVID-19）发病率的影响。季节性可能在严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）传播中起重要作用。本研究旨在评估西班牙COVID-19的地理分布模式及其与不同气象变量的关系。
开展了一项省级生态研究，分析前三波疫情期间气象和地理因素对西班牙52个省份（24个沿海省份和28个内陆省份）COVID-19累积发病率的影响。累积发病率通过西班牙国家统计局（INE）和国家流行病学监测网络（RENAVE）的数据计算得出，而气象变量则取自西班牙气象局（AEMET）。
在所有三波疫情中，沿海省份的总累积发病率低于内陆省份（566±181 vs. 782±154；P = 2.5×10⁻¹⁰）。累积发病率与平均气温（r = -0.49；P = 2.2×10⁻⁵）和降雨量（r = -0.33；P = 0.01）呈负相关，与海拔高度呈正相关（r = 0.56；P = 1.4×10⁻⁷）。平均气温<10°C的西班牙省份的累积发病率几乎是气温>16°C省份的两倍。无论其他因素如何，平均气温和降雨量均与COVID-19的累积发病率相关（β系数分别为-0.62；P = 3.7×10⁻⁶和-0.47；P = 4.2×10⁻⁵）。
气象和地理因素可能影响西班牙疫情的演变。了解病毒的季节性将有助于预测COVID-19感染的新一波疫情。
