Espitia Alvaro, Mattoo Aaditya, Rocha Nadia, Ruta Michele, Winkler Deborah
World Bank Washington DC USA.
World Econ. 2022 Feb;45(2):561-589. doi: 10.1111/twec.13117. Epub 2021 Mar 30.
This paper studies the trade effects of COVID-19 using monthly disaggregated trade data for 28 countries and multiple trading partners from the beginning of the pandemic to June 2020. Regression results based on a sector-level gravity model show that the negative trade effects induced by COVID-19 shocks varied widely across sectors. Sectors more amenable to remote work contracted less throughout the pandemic. Importantly, participation in global value chains increased traders' vulnerability to shocks suffered by trading partners, but it also reduced their vulnerability to domestic shocks.
本文利用28个国家和多个贸易伙伴从疫情开始到2020年6月的月度细分贸易数据，研究了新冠疫情对贸易的影响。基于部门层面引力模型的回归结果表明，新冠疫情冲击所引发的负面贸易影响在各部门间差异很大。在整个疫情期间，更适合远程工作的部门收缩幅度较小。重要的是，参与全球价值链增加了贸易商受贸易伙伴冲击影响的脆弱性，但也降低了他们受国内冲击影响的脆弱性。
