Khorana Sangeeta, Martínez-Zarzoso Inmaculada, Ali Salamat
Aston Business School Birmingham UK.
University of Göttingen Göttingen Germany.
Rev Int Econ. 2022 Oct 4. doi: 10.1111/roie.12637.
This article employs gravity modeling to examine the effect of COVID-19 on global and intra-Commonwealth trade. It uses bilateral monthly exports, number of COVID-19 cases and deaths and the stringency of measures. The main novelty is the use of price indices as proxies for multilateral resistance terms, which allow us to identify, supply, and demand effects of COVID-19 on bilateral trade. The incidence of COVID-19 impacts Commonwealth trade flows, the effect varies with the development level. High numbers of COVID-19 cases, including deaths, in low-income importers reduced Commonwealth exports unlike high-income importers that show higher exports. The incidence of COVID in an exporters' neighbouring countries impacted trade and restrictions in high-income countries increased Commonwealth trade. Short-term trends project a negative change in both exports and imports of Commonwealth countries.
本文采用引力模型来研究新冠疫情对全球贸易以及英联邦内部贸易的影响。研究使用了双边月度出口数据、新冠病例及死亡人数以及防控措施的严格程度。主要创新点在于使用价格指数作为多边阻力项的代理变量，这使我们能够确定新冠疫情对双边贸易的供给、需求影响。新冠疫情的发生率影响英联邦的贸易流动，其影响因发展水平而异。低收入进口国的大量新冠病例（包括死亡病例）减少了英联邦的出口，而高收入进口国的出口则有所增加。出口国邻国的新冠疫情发生率影响了贸易，高收入国家的限制措施增加了英联邦的贸易。短期趋势显示英联邦国家的出口和进口都将出现负向变化。
