Baicker Katherine, Finkelstein Amy
University of Chicago, NBER, and J-PAL North America.
NBER and J-PAL North America.
Quart J Polit Sci. 2019;14(4):383-400. doi: 10.1561/100.00019026. Epub 2019 Oct 10.
In 2008, a group of uninsured low-income adults in Oregon was selected by lottery for the chance to apply for Medicaid. Using this randomized design and state administrative data on voter behavior, we analyze how a Medicaid expansion affected voter turnout and registration. We find that Medicaid increased voter turnout in the November 2008 Presidential election by about 7 percent overall, with the effects concentrated in men (18 percent increase) and in residents of Democratic counties (10 percent increase); there is suggestive evidence that the increase in voting reflected new voter registrations, rather than increased turnout among pre-existing registrants. There is no evidence of an increase in voter turnout in subsequent elections, up to and including the November 2010 midterm election.
2008年，俄勒冈州一群未参保的低收入成年人通过抽签获得了申请医疗补助的机会。利用这种随机设计以及关于选民行为的州行政数据，我们分析了医疗补助扩大计划对选民投票率和登记情况的影响。我们发现，医疗补助使2008年11月总统选举的总体选民投票率提高了约7%，影响主要集中在男性（提高了18%）和民主党选区的居民（提高了10%）；有迹象表明投票率的提高反映了新选民的登记，而非现有登记选民投票率的提高。在包括2010年11月中期选举在内的后续选举中，没有证据表明选民投票率有所增加。
