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利用社交媒体进行疫情建模——挑战与机遇。

Harnessing Social Media in the Modelling of Pandemics-Challenges and Opportunities.

机构信息

The University of The West Indies Open Campus, Bridgetown, Barbados.

Department of Health Services Research and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, WC1H 9SH, UK.

出版信息

Bull Math Biol. 2021 Apr 9;83(5):57. doi: 10.1007/s11538-021-00895-3.

Abstract

As COVID-19 spreads throughout the world without a straightforward treatment or widespread vaccine coverage in the near future, mathematical models of disease spread and of the potential impact of mitigation measures have been thrust into the limelight. With their popularity and ability to disseminate information relatively freely and rapidly, information from social media platforms offers a user-generated, spontaneous insight into users' minds that may capture beliefs, opinions, attitudes, intentions and behaviour towards outbreaks of infectious disease not obtainable elsewhere. The interactive, immersive nature of social media may reveal emergent behaviour that does not occur in engagement with traditional mass media or conventional surveys. In recognition of the dramatic shift to life online during the COVID-19 pandemic to mitigate disease spread and the increasing threat of further pandemics, we examine the challenges and opportunities inherent in the use of social media data in infectious disease modelling with particular focus on their inclusion in compartmental models.

摘要

随着 COVID-19 在全球范围内传播,而在不久的将来也没有直接的治疗方法或广泛的疫苗接种覆盖,疾病传播的数学模型和潜在缓解措施的影响已经成为焦点。社交媒体平台上的信息具有流行度和相对自由、快速传播信息的能力,提供了用户生成的、自发的对用户思维的洞察,这些洞察可能捕捉到对传染病爆发的信念、意见、态度、意图和行为,而这些在其他地方是无法获得的。社交媒体的互动性和沉浸式特性可能揭示出在与传统大众媒体或传统调查互动中不会出现的新兴行为。认识到在 COVID-19 大流行期间为了减轻疾病传播而急剧转向在线生活,以及进一步大流行的威胁不断增加,我们研究了在传染病建模中使用社交媒体数据所固有的挑战和机遇,特别关注它们在房室模型中的纳入。

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