van Westen René M, Dijkstra Henk A
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, Netherlands.
Sci Adv. 2021 Apr 9;7(15). doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abf1674. Print 2021 Apr.
Current sea-level projections are based on climate models in which the effects of ocean eddies are parameterized. Here, we investigate the effect of ocean eddies on global mean sea-level rise (GMSLR) projections, using climate model simulations. Explicitly resolving ocean eddies leads to a more realistic Southern Ocean temperature distribution and volume transport. These quantities control the rate of basal melt, which eventually results in Antarctic mass loss. In a model with resolved ocean eddies, the Southern Ocean temperature changes lead to a smaller Antarctic GMSLR contribution compared to the same model in which eddies are parameterized. As a result, the projected GMSLR is about 25% lower at the end of this century in the eddying model. Relatively small-scale ocean eddies can hence have profound large-scale effects and consequently affect GMSLR projections.
当前的海平面预测是基于海洋涡旋效应已被参数化的气候模型。在此，我们利用气候模型模拟来研究海洋涡旋对全球平均海平面上升（GMSLR）预测的影响。明确解析海洋涡旋会导致更符合实际的南大洋温度分布和体积输送。这些量控制着底部融化速率，最终导致南极质量损失。在一个解析了海洋涡旋的模型中，与涡旋被参数化的同一模型相比，南大洋温度变化导致南极对全球平均海平面上升的贡献更小。因此，在有涡旋的模型中，到本世纪末预测的全球平均海平面上升约低25%。相对小尺度的海洋涡旋因此可能产生深远的大尺度影响，从而影响全球平均海平面上升预测。
