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基于新的 IPCC 特别报告《气候变化中的海洋和冰冻圈》对瑞典海平面上升的预测。

Sea-level rise projections for Sweden based on the new IPCC special report: The ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate.

机构信息

Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden.

出版信息

Ambio. 2020 Oct;49(10):1587-1600. doi: 10.1007/s13280-019-01313-8. Epub 2020 Jan 28.

Abstract

New sea-level rise projections for Sweden are presented. Compared to earlier projections, we have here, more carefully, taken regional variations in sea-level rise into consideration. The better treatment of regional variations leads to lower sea-level rise projections for Sweden. However, recent research has also shown that Antarctic ice loss, in high emission scenarios, could be greater than what was believed earlier. Taking also this into account, we find a near cancellation between the increased Antarctic contribution and the decrease owing to the better treatment of spatial inhomogeneities. Sweden's sensitivity to melt from Antarctica and Greenland is also estimated using a new set of sea-level fingerprint kernels, and the sensitivity to melt from Greenland is found to be weak. To illustrate the influence mean sea-level rise has on extreme sea levels, it is also shown how the return period of sea-level extremes changes as a function of time owing to mean sea-level rise in the different projections.

摘要

瑞典海平面上升的新预测结果。与早期的预测相比,我们在这里更仔细地考虑了海平面上升的区域变化。对区域变化的更好处理导致对瑞典海平面上升的预测值降低。然而,最近的研究还表明,在高排放情景下,南极冰损失可能比之前认为的要大。考虑到这一点,我们发现由于更好地处理空间不均匀性而导致的海平面上升减少与南极贡献的增加相抵消。还使用一组新的海平面指纹核来估计瑞典对南极洲和格陵兰岛融化的敏感性,并且发现对格陵兰岛融化的敏感性较弱。为了说明平均海平面上升对极端海平面的影响,还展示了由于不同预测中的平均海平面上升,海平面极值的重现期如何随时间而变化。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/25a5/7413947/fb44ae1af7c3/13280_2019_1313_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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