Tim Murray is with the Department of Economics and Business, Virginia Military Institute, Lexington, VA.
Am J Public Health. 2021 Jun;111(6):1149-1156. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2021.306209. Epub 2021 Apr 15.
To understand how stay-at-home orders changed mobility patterns and influenced the spread of COVID-19. I merged 2020 data from the Virginia Department of Health, Google Mobility Reports, and the US Census to estimate a series of 2-way fixed-effect event-study regression models. A stay-at-home order caused people to increase the amount of time spent at home by 12 percentage points and decrease the time the spent at work by 30 percentage points, retail and recreation venues by 40 percentage points, and grocery stores and pharmacies by 10 percentage points. People did not sustain changes in mobility and gradually returned to prepandemic levels before the stay-at-home order was lifted. In areas where people spent the most time at indoor locations, there was a large increase in COVID-19. A more robust and stricter policy response coordinated at the national level combined with a strong economic response from policymakers could have increased the effectiveness of the stay-at-home order.
为了了解居家令如何改变人们的出行模式并影响 COVID-19 的传播，我合并了 2020 年弗吉尼亚州卫生部、谷歌移动报告和美国人口普查的数据，以估计一系列双向固定效应事件研究回归模型。居家令使人们在家的时间增加了 12 个百分点，工作时间减少了 30 个百分点，零售和娱乐场所减少了 40 个百分点，杂货店和药店减少了 10 个百分点。人们的出行模式并没有持续改变，而是在居家令解除前逐渐恢复到疫情前的水平。在人们在室内场所停留时间最长的地区，COVID-19 的病例大量增加。更有力、更严格的政策响应在国家层面上协调，并结合决策者强有力的经济响应，可能会提高居家令的有效性。
