Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS), Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Department for Women's and Children's Health, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.
Nat Commun. 2021 Apr 15;12(1):2349. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-22446-z.
Substantial COVID-19 research investment has been allocated to randomized clinical trials (RCTs) on hydroxychloroquine/chloroquine, which currently face recruitment challenges or early discontinuation. We aim to estimate the effects of hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine on survival in COVID-19 from all currently available RCT evidence, published and unpublished. We present a rapid meta-analysis of ongoing, completed, or discontinued RCTs on hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine treatment for any COVID-19 patients (protocol: https://osf.io/QESV4/ ). We systematically identified unpublished RCTs (ClinicalTrials.gov, WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, Cochrane COVID-registry up to June 11, 2020), and published RCTs (PubMed, medRxiv and bioRxiv up to October 16, 2020). All-cause mortality has been extracted (publications/preprints) or requested from investigators and combined in random-effects meta-analyses, calculating odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), separately for hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine. Prespecified subgroup analyses include patient setting, diagnostic confirmation, control type, and publication status. Sixty-three trials were potentially eligible. We included 14 unpublished trials (1308 patients) and 14 publications/preprints (9011 patients). Results for hydroxychloroquine are dominated by RECOVERY and WHO SOLIDARITY, two highly pragmatic trials, which employed relatively high doses and included 4716 and 1853 patients, respectively (67% of the total sample size). The combined OR on all-cause mortality for hydroxychloroquine is 1.11 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.20; I² = 0%; 26 trials; 10,012 patients) and for chloroquine 1.77 (95%CI: 0.15, 21.13, I² = 0%; 4 trials; 307 patients). We identified no subgroup effects. We found that treatment with hydroxychloroquine is associated with increased mortality in COVID-19 patients, and there is no benefit of chloroquine. Findings have unclear generalizability to outpatients, children, pregnant women, and people with comorbidities.
大量的 COVID-19 研究投资都集中在羟氯喹/氯喹的随机临床试验 (RCT) 上,目前这些 RCT 面临着招募挑战或提前终止。我们旨在根据所有现有 RCT 证据(已发表和未发表),评估羟氯喹和氯喹对 COVID-19 患者生存的影响。我们对正在进行、已完成或已终止的羟氯喹或氯喹治疗任何 COVID-19 患者的 RCT 进行了快速荟萃分析(方案:https://osf.io/QESV4/)。我们系统地在 ClinicalTrials.gov、WHO 国际临床试验注册平台、Cochrane COVID-registry(截至 2020 年 6 月 11 日)中查找了未发表的 RCT,以及在 PubMed、medRxiv 和 bioRxiv(截至 2020 年 10 月 16 日)中查找了已发表的 RCT。从出版物/预印本中提取了全因死亡率(如有),或向研究者请求全因死亡率,并使用随机效应荟萃分析进行了合并,分别计算了羟氯喹和氯喹的比值比(OR)及其 95%置信区间(CI)。预设的亚组分析包括患者环境、诊断确认、对照类型和发表状态。有 63 项试验可能符合条件。我们纳入了 14 项未发表的试验(1308 名患者)和 14 项出版物/预印本(9011 名患者)。羟氯喹的结果主要来自 RECOVERY 和 WHO SOLIDARITY 两项高度实用的试验,这两项试验使用了相对较高的剂量,分别纳入了 4716 名和 1853 名患者(占总样本量的 67%)。羟氯喹治疗的全因死亡率的合并 OR 为 1.11(95%CI:1.02,1.20;I²=0%;26 项试验;10012 名患者),氯喹为 1.77(95%CI:0.15,21.13,I²=0%;4 项试验;307 名患者)。我们没有发现亚组效应。我们发现,羟氯喹治疗 COVID-19 患者与死亡率增加相关,氯喹没有益处。研究结果对门诊患者、儿童、孕妇和合并症患者的推广性尚不清楚。