Michalopoulos Stelios, Naghavi Alireza, Prarolo Giovanni
Brown University, Department of Economics, 64 Waterman st., Robinson Hall, Providence, RI 02912, USA, CEPR, and NBER,
University of Bologna. Department of Economics, Piazza Scaravilli 2, 40126 Bologna, Italy,
Econ J (London). 2018 Dec;128(616):3210-3241. doi: 10.1111/ecoj.12557. Epub 2017 Dec 20.
In this study we explore the historical determinants of contemporary Muslim representation. Motivated by a plethora of case studies and historical accounts among Islamicists stressing the role of trade for the adoption of Islam, we construct detailed data on pre-Islamic trade routes, harbors, and ports to determine the empirical regularity of this argument. Our analysis - conducted across countries and across ethnic groups within countries - establishes that proximity to the pre-600 CE trade network is a robust predictor of today's Muslim adherence in the Old World. We also show that Islam spread successfully in regions that are ecologically similar to the birthplace of the religion, the Arabian Peninsula. Namely, territories characterized by a large share of arid and semiarid regions dotted with few pockets of fertile land are more likely to host Muslim communities. We discuss the various mechanisms that may give rise to the observed pattern.
在本研究中，我们探讨当代穆斯林代表性的历史决定因素。受大量案例研究以及伊斯兰学者强调贸易在伊斯兰教传播中作用的历史记载的启发，我们构建了关于伊斯兰教前贸易路线、港口和口岸的详细数据，以确定这一观点的经验规律性。我们在不同国家以及同一国家内的不同族群间进行分析，结果表明，公元600年前的贸易网络的远近是当今旧世界穆斯林信仰的有力预测指标。我们还表明，伊斯兰教在生态环境与该宗教发源地阿拉伯半岛相似的地区成功传播。也就是说，以大片干旱和半干旱地区为主、仅有少量肥沃土地的地区更有可能有穆斯林社区。我们讨论了可能导致观察到的这种模式的各种机制。
