Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021 Apr 13;118(15). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2018211118.
Knowing the historical relative contribution of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) to global radiative forcing (RF) at the regional level can help understand how future GHGs emission reductions and associated or independent reductions in SLCFs will affect the ultimate purpose of the Paris Agreement. In this study, we use a compact Earth system model to quantify the global RF and attribute global RF to individual countries and regions. As our evaluation, the United States, the first 15 European Union members, and China are the top three contributors, accounting for 21.9 ± 3.1%, 13.7 ± 1.6%, and 8.6 ± 7.0% of global RF in 2014, respectively. We also find a contrast between developed countries where GHGs dominate the RF and developing countries where SLCFs including aerosols and ozone are more dominant. In developing countries, negative RF caused by aerosols largely masks the positive RF from GHGs. As developing countries take measures to improve the air quality, their negative contributions from aerosols will likely be reduced in the future, which will in turn enhance global warming. This underlines the importance of reducing GHG emissions in parallel to avoid any detrimental consequences from air quality policies.
了解温室气体（GHGs）和短寿命气候强迫因子（SLCFs）对区域层面全球辐射强迫（RF）的历史相对贡献，有助于理解未来减少 GHGs 排放以及相关或独立减少 SLCFs 将如何影响《巴黎协定》的最终目标。在这项研究中，我们使用一个紧凑型地球系统模型来量化全球 RF，并将全球 RF 归因于各个国家和地区。评估结果显示，美国、前 15 个欧盟成员国和中国是前三大贡献者，分别占 2014 年全球 RF 的 21.9%±3.1%、13.7%±1.6%和 8.6%±7.0%。我们还发现，发达国家的 RF 主要由 GHGs 主导，而发展中国家的 RF 则主要由气溶胶和臭氧等 SLCFs 主导。在发展中国家，气溶胶产生的负 RF 在很大程度上掩盖了 GHGs 产生的正 RF。随着发展中国家采取措施改善空气质量，未来其气溶胶的负贡献可能会减少，这反过来又会加剧全球变暖。这突显了减少 GHGs 排放的重要性，以避免空气质量政策带来的任何不利后果。
