Cassel Dieter, Ulrich Volker
Wirtschaftspolitik und Gesundheitsökonomie, Universität Duisburg-Essen, Lotharstr. 65, 47057 Duisburg, Deutschland.
Rechts- und Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, Universität Bayreuth, Universitätsstraße 3, 95447 Bayreuth, Deutschland.
Wirtschaftsdienst. 2021;101(4):276-283. doi: 10.1007/s10273-021-2895-4. Epub 2021 Apr 17.
A total of 3.2 million people in Germany have been fully immunised so far. However, in order to achieve herd immunity, which is likely to require an immunisation rate of around 80 % due to the highly infectious mutants, approximately 65 million people need to be vaccinated. The current "imbalance" in the vaccination campaign is largely due to the limited supply of vaccines. Since J&J's vaccine has recently been approved by the EU and additional production facilities are available, it is foreseeable that the capacities of the vaccination centres will no longer be sufficient. Moreover, at some point the existing unwillingness to vaccinate could become the final bottleneck in reaching herd immunity. This paper provides some calculations for these relationships. Against this background, it is questionable how well-prepared the present system is to cope with these foreseeable problems.
到目前为止，德国共有320万人完全接种了疫苗。然而，为了实现群体免疫，由于高传染性变种，这可能需要约80%的接种率，因此大约需要6500万人接种疫苗。目前疫苗接种运动中的“不平衡”在很大程度上是由于疫苗供应有限。由于强生公司的疫苗最近已获得欧盟批准且有额外的生产设施，预计疫苗接种中心的能力将不再足够。此外，现有的不愿接种疫苗的情况在某个时候可能会成为实现群体免疫的最终瓶颈。本文对这些关系进行了一些计算。在此背景下，目前的系统应对这些可预见问题的准备程度如何值得怀疑。
