Diffusion modeling of COVID-19 under lockdown.
作者信息
Serra Nicola, Di Carlo Paola, Rea Teresa, Sergi Consolato M
机构信息
Departments of Public Health, University Federico II of Naples, 80131 Naples, Italy.
Department of Health Promotion, Maternal-Childhood, Internal Medicine of Excellence "G. D'Alessandro," PROMISE, University of Palermo, Palermo 90127, Italy.
出版信息
Phys Fluids (1994). 2021 Apr;33(4):041903. doi: 10.1063/5.0044061. Epub 2021 Apr 12.
Viral immune evasion by sequence variation is a significant barrier to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccine design and coronavirus disease-2019 diffusion under lockdown are unpredictable with subsequent waves. Our group has developed a computational model rooted in physics to address this challenge, aiming to predict the fitness landscape of SARS-CoV-2 diffusion using a variant of the bidimensional Ising model (2DIMV) connected seasonally. The 2DIMV works in a closed system composed of limited interaction subjects and conditioned by only temperature changes. Markov chain Monte Carlo method shows that an increase in temperature implicates reduced virus diffusion and increased mobility, leading to increased virus diffusion.