International Health Policy Program, Nonthaburi, Thailand.
Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi, Thailand.
PLoS One. 2021 Apr 29;16(4):e0250841. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0250841. eCollection 2021.
The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes to address obesity. Thailand has just launched the new tax rates for SSB in 2017; however, the existing tax rate is not as high as the 20% recommended by the WHO. The objective for this study was to estimate the impacts of an SSB tax on body mass index (BMI) and obesity prevalence in Thailand under three different scenarios based on existing SSB and recommended tax rates.
A base model was built to estimate the impacts of an SSB tax on SSB consumption, energy intake, BMI, and obesity prevalence. Literature review was conducted to estimate pass on rate, price elasticity, energy compensation, and energy balance to weight change. Different tax rates (11%, 20% and 25%) were used in the model. The model assumed no substitution effects, model values were based on international data since there was no empirical Thai data available. Differential effects by income groups were not estimated.
When applying 11%, 20%, and 25% tax rates together with 100% pass on rate and an -1.30 own-price elasticity, the SSB consumption decreased by 14%, 26%, and 32%, respectively. The 20% and 25% price increase in SSB price tended to reduce higher energy intake, weight status and BMI, when compared with an 11% increase in existing price increase of SSB. The percentage changes of obesity prevalence of 11%, 20% and 25% SSB tax rates were estimated to be 1.73%, 3.83%, and 4.91%, respectively.
A higher SSB tax (20% and 25%) was estimated to reduce consumption and consequently decrease obesity prevalence. Since Thailand has already endorsed the excise tax structure, the new excise tax structure for SSB should be scaled up to a 20% or 25% tax rate if the SSB consumption change does not meet a favourable goal.
世界卫生组织（WHO）建议对含糖饮料（SSB）征税，以解决肥胖问题。泰国于 2017 年刚刚推出了 SSB 的新税率；然而，现有的税率并没有达到 WHO 建议的 20%那么高。本研究的目的是根据现有的 SSB 和建议的税率，在三种不同的情况下，估算 SSB 税对泰国体重指数（BMI）和肥胖患病率的影响。
建立了一个基础模型来估算 SSB 税对 SSB 消费、能量摄入、BMI 和肥胖患病率的影响。对转售率、价格弹性、能量补偿和能量平衡对体重变化的影响进行了文献回顾。该模型使用了不同的税率（11%、20%和 25%）。该模型假设没有替代效应，模型值基于国际数据，因为没有可用的泰国实证数据。没有估计不同收入群体的差异影响。
当应用 11%、20%和 25%的税率，以及 100%的转售率和-1.30 的自价格弹性时，SSB 的消费分别下降了 14%、26%和 32%。与 SSB 价格上涨 11%相比，SSB 价格上涨 20%和 25%的价格上涨趋势会降低较高的能量摄入、体重状况和 BMI。估计 11%、20%和 25%SSB 税率的肥胖患病率的百分比变化分别为 1.73%、3.83%和 4.91%。
更高的 SSB 税（20%和 25%）预计将减少消费，从而降低肥胖的患病率。由于泰国已经支持消费税结构，新的 SSB 消费税结构应提高到 20%或 25%的税率，如果 SSB 消费变化不符合有利目标。
