Hagens Arnold, İnkaya Ahmet Çağkan, Yildirak Kasirga, Sancar Mesut, van der Schans Jurjen, Acar Sancar Aylin, Ünal Serhat, Postma Maarten, Yeğenoğlu Selen
Department of Health Sciences, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen (RUG), 9713 AV Groningen, The Netherlands.
Department of Infectious Diseases and Clinical Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, Hacettepe University, Ankara 06230, Turkey.
Vaccines (Basel). 2021 Apr 18;9(4):399. doi: 10.3390/vaccines9040399.
As of March 2021, COVID-19 has claimed the lives of more than 2.7 million people worldwide. Vaccination has started in most countries around the world. In this study, we estimated the cost-effectiveness of strategies for COVID-19 vaccination for Turkey compared to a baseline in the absence of vaccination and imposed measures by using an enhanced SIRD (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered, Death) model and various scenarios for the first year after vaccination. The results showed that vaccination is cost-effective from a health care perspective, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of 511 USD/QALY and 1045 USD/QALY if vaccine effectiveness on transmission is equal or reduced to only 50% of effectiveness on disease, respectively, at the 90% baseline effectiveness of the vaccine. From a societal perspective, cost savings were estimated for both scenarios. Other results further showed that the minimum required vaccine uptake to be cost-effective would be at least 30%. Sensitivity and scenario analyses, as well as the iso-ICER curves, showed that the results were quite robust and that major changes in cost-effectiveness outcomes cannot be expected. We can conclude that COVID-19 vaccination in Turkey is highly cost-effective or even cost-saving.
截至2021年3月，新冠病毒已在全球造成超过270万人死亡。全球大多数国家已开始接种疫苗。在本研究中，我们通过使用增强的SIRD（易感、感染、康复、死亡）模型以及接种疫苗后第一年的各种情景，估计了土耳其新冠疫苗接种策略相对于未接种疫苗和未采取措施的基线情况的成本效益。结果表明，从医疗保健角度来看，接种疫苗具有成本效益，在疫苗基线有效性为90%的情况下，如果疫苗对传播的有效性等于或降低至仅为对疾病有效性的50%，增量成本效益比（ICER）分别为511美元/质量调整生命年和1045美元/质量调整生命年。从社会角度来看，两种情景均估计有成本节约。其他结果进一步表明，具有成本效益所需的最低疫苗接种率至少为30%。敏感性分析和情景分析以及等增量成本效益比曲线表明，结果相当稳健，成本效益结果预计不会有重大变化。我们可以得出结论，土耳其的新冠疫苗接种具有很高的成本效益，甚至可以节省成本。
