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为肯尼亚建立多种气候变化情景下炭疽病爆发的潜在未来分布模型。

Modeling the Potential Future Distribution of Anthrax Outbreaks under Multiple Climate Change Scenarios for Kenya.

机构信息

Animal Health Program, International Livestock Research Institute, P.O. Box 30709 Nairobi 00100, Kenya.

School of Environment, Water and Natural Resources, South Eastern Kenya University, P.O. Box 17, Kitui 90200, Kenya.

出版信息

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Apr 15;18(8):4176. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18084176.

DOI:10.3390/ijerph18084176
PMID:33920863
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8103515/
Abstract

The climate is changing, and such changes are projected to cause global increase in the prevalence and geographic ranges of infectious diseases such as anthrax. There is limited knowledge in the tropics with regards to expected impacts of climate change on anthrax outbreaks. We determined the future distribution of anthrax in Kenya with representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 for year 2055. Ecological niche modelling (ENM) of boosted regression trees (BRT) was applied in predicting the potential geographic distribution of anthrax for current and future climatic conditions. The models were fitted with presence-only anthrax occurrences (n = 178) from historical archives (2011-2017), sporadic outbreak surveys (2017-2018), and active surveillance (2019-2020). The selected environmental variables in order of importance included rainfall of wettest month, mean precipitation (February, October, December, July), annual temperature range, temperature seasonality, length of longest dry season, potential evapotranspiration and slope. We found a general anthrax risk areal expansion i.e., current, 36,131 km, RCP 4.5, 40,012 km, and RCP 8.5, 39,835 km. The distribution exhibited a northward shift from current to future. This prediction of the potential anthrax distribution under changing climates can inform anticipatory measures to mitigate future anthrax risk.

摘要

气候变化预计将导致炭疽等传染病的流行和地理范围在全球范围内扩大。关于气候变化对炭疽疫情的预期影响，热带地区的了解有限。我们使用代表性浓度途径 (RCP) 4.5 和 8.5 确定了肯尼亚未来炭疽的分布情况，预测时间为 2055 年。我们采用基于提升回归树 (BRT) 的生态位模型 (ENM) 来预测当前和未来气候条件下炭疽的潜在地理分布。模型是使用历史档案（2011-2017 年）、偶发性暴发调查（2017-2018 年）和主动监测（2019-2020 年）中的炭疽现患事件（n=178）拟合的。按重要性顺序选择的环境变量包括最湿月份的降雨量、平均降水量（二月、十月、十二月、七月）、年温度范围、温度季节性、最长旱季长度、潜在蒸散量和坡度。我们发现炭疽风险面积普遍扩大，即当前面积为 36,131 平方公里，RCP 4.5 为 40,012 平方公里，RCP 8.5 为 39,835 平方公里。分布显示从当前到未来的北移。这种气候变化下炭疽潜在分布的预测可以为减轻未来炭疽风险提供预期措施的信息。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45fd/8103515/b62bda8ef810/ijerph-18-04176-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45fd/8103515/3cf7dcc85ab0/ijerph-18-04176-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45fd/8103515/2ba08bd15ee3/ijerph-18-04176-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45fd/8103515/2d7f9aae4603/ijerph-18-04176-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45fd/8103515/73429f73fc08/ijerph-18-04176-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45fd/8103515/b62bda8ef810/ijerph-18-04176-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45fd/8103515/3cf7dcc85ab0/ijerph-18-04176-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45fd/8103515/2ba08bd15ee3/ijerph-18-04176-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45fd/8103515/2d7f9aae4603/ijerph-18-04176-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45fd/8103515/73429f73fc08/ijerph-18-04176-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/45fd/8103515/b62bda8ef810/ijerph-18-04176-g005.jpg

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