School of Economics and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Apr 15;18(8):4210. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18084210.
At the beginning of 2020, the global outbreak of the novel coronavirus COVID-19 posed a huge challenge to the governance capabilities of public health in various countries. In this paper, the SEIR model is used to fit the number of confirmed cases in each province in China, and the reduction rate of the basic reproduction number is used to measure the actual score of the control effect of COVID-19. The potential capacity of prevention and control of epidemics, in theory, is constructed, and we use the difference between theoretical ability and actual score to measure the ability of governance of public health. We found that there were significant differences between actual effect and theoretical ability in various regions, and governance capabilities were an important reason leading to this difference, which was not consistent with the level of economic development. The balance of multiple objectives, the guiding ideology of emphasizing medical treatment over prevention, the fragmentation of the public health system, and the insufficiency of prevention and control ability in primary public health systems seriously affected the government's ability to respond to public health emergencies.
2020 年初，新型冠状病毒 COVID-19 在全球范围内爆发，对各国公共卫生治理能力提出了巨大挑战。本文利用 SEIR 模型拟合中国各省确诊病例数，利用基本再生数的下降率来衡量 COVID-19 防控效果的实际得分。从理论上构建疫情防控的潜在能力，并利用理论能力与实际得分的差值来衡量公共卫生治理能力。研究发现，各地区实际效果与理论能力存在显著差异，治理能力是导致这种差异的重要原因，且与经济发展水平并不一致。多重目标的平衡、重治疗轻预防的指导思想、公共卫生体系碎片化以及基层公共卫生体系防控能力不足，严重影响了政府应对突发公共卫生事件的能力。
