College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Sep;28(35):49278-49288. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-14169-x. Epub 2021 May 1.
Under the global climate warming, extreme weather events occur more and more frequently. Epidemiological studies have proved that extreme temperature is strongly correlated with respiratory diseases. We evaluated extreme-temperature effect on respiratory emergency room (ER) visits for 5 years in Lanzhou, a northwest temperate climate city of China from January 1st, 2013, to August 31st, 2017. We built a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) to evaluate the lag effect up to 30 days. Results showed the relative risk (RR) of respiratory disease always reached the maximum at lag 0 day and decreased to 1.0 at lag 5 days. Extremely low temperature showed the lag effect of 22 days and the maximum RR was 1.415 (95% CI 1.295-1.546) at lag 0 day. Extremely high temperature showed the lag effect of 7 days and the maximum RR was 1.091 (95% CI 1.069-1.114) at lag 0 day. The elders (age > 65 years) were at the greatest risk to extreme temperatures and the response were very acute. Children (age ≤ 15 years) were at the lowest risk but the lag effect lasted the longest lag days than other subgroups. Males showed longer-term lag effect and higher RR than females. Our study indicated that the extremely low temperature has a significantly greater effect on respiratory diseases than extremely high temperature.
在全球气候变暖的背景下，极端天气事件越来越频繁。流行病学研究已经证明，极端温度与呼吸系统疾病密切相关。我们评估了 2013 年 1 月 1 日至 2017 年 8 月 31 日中国西北温带气候城市兰州 5 年来极端温度对呼吸科急诊（ER）就诊的影响。我们构建了一个分布滞后非线性模型（DLNM）来评估长达 30 天的滞后效应。结果表明，呼吸系统疾病的相对风险（RR）总是在滞后 0 天达到最大值，并在滞后 5 天降至 1.0。极低温度表现出 22 天的滞后效应，在滞后 0 天的最大 RR 为 1.415（95%置信区间 1.295-1.546）。极高温度表现出 7 天的滞后效应，在滞后 0 天的最大 RR 为 1.091（95%置信区间 1.069-1.114）。老年人（年龄＞65 岁）对极端温度的风险最大，反应非常剧烈。儿童（年龄≤15 岁）风险最低，但滞后效应持续时间最长。男性比女性表现出更长的滞后效应和更高的 RR。本研究表明，极低温度对呼吸系统疾病的影响明显大于极高温度。
