Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
CEPR, London, UK.
Eur J Health Econ. 2021 Sep;22(7):1115-1128. doi: 10.1007/s10198-021-01310-3. Epub 2021 May 6.
This paper analyzes the epidemiological and economic effects of quarantines. We use a basic epidemiological model, a SEIR-model, that is calibrated to roughly resemble the COVID-19 pandemic, and we assume that individuals that become infected or are isolated on average lose a share of their productivity. An early quarantine postpones but does not alter the course of the pandemic at a cost that increases in the duration and the extent of the quarantine. For quarantines at later stages of the pandemic there is a trade-off between lowering the peak level of infectious people on the one hand and minimizing fatalities and economic losses on the other hand. A longer quarantine dampens the peak level of infectious people and also reduces the total number of infected persons but increases economic losses. Both the peak level of infectious individuals and the total share of the population that will have been infected are U-shaped in relation to the share of the population in quarantine, while economic costs increase in this share. In particular, a quarantine covering a moderate share of the population leads to a lower peak, fewer deaths and lower economic costs, but it implies that the peak of the pandemic occurs earlier.
本文分析了隔离的流行病学和经济影响。我们使用了一个基本的流行病学模型，即 SEIR 模型，该模型经过校准，大致类似于 COVID-19 大流行，并假设感染或隔离的个体平均会损失一部分生产力。早期的隔离会推迟但不会改变大流行的进程，但隔离的持续时间和范围越长，成本就越高。对于大流行后期的隔离措施，一方面需要降低感染人数的峰值，另一方面需要尽量减少死亡人数和经济损失，这两者之间存在权衡。较长的隔离期会降低感染人数的峰值，也会减少感染总人数，但会增加经济损失。感染人数的峰值和感染人口的总比例与隔离人口的比例呈 U 形关系，而经济成本则随着这一比例的增加而增加。特别是，覆盖中等比例人口的隔离措施会导致峰值降低、死亡人数减少和经济成本降低，但这意味着大流行的高峰期会更早到来。
