Vaupel J W
Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis 55455.
Demography. 1988 May;25(2):277-87.
The life spans of parents and children appear only weakly related, even though parents affect their children's longevity through both genetic and environmental influences. These influences can be summarized as a correlation between parents' and children's frailty. It is shown that even if children perfectly inherit their frailty from their parents, parents' life spans explain little of the variance in children's life spans, because the variance in life expectancies among people with different frailties is small compared with the variance in life spans among people at the same level of frailty. By interpreting frailty as a relative risk in a proportional-hazard model, longevity as a duration or waiting time, and inheritance as an invariance in relative risk over time, one can extend this result to repeatable events involving fertility, migration, marriage, unemployment, and so forth.
父母与子女的寿命似乎仅有微弱的关联,尽管父母会通过基因和环境影响来左右子女的寿命。这些影响可归纳为父母与子女脆弱程度之间的一种相关性。研究表明,即便子女完全继承了父母的脆弱性,父母的寿命对子女寿命差异的解释作用也微乎其微,因为不同脆弱程度人群之间的预期寿命差异,相较于相同脆弱程度人群之间的寿命差异要小得多。通过在比例风险模型中将脆弱性解释为相对风险,将寿命解释为持续时间或等待时间,并将遗传解释为相对风险随时间的不变性,人们可以将这一结果推广至涉及生育、迁移、婚姻、失业等可重复发生的事件。