Manton K G, Stallard E, Vaupel J W
Demography. 1981 Aug;18(3):389-410.
Methods are presented which produce Maximum Likelihood Estimates (MLE) of the degree of heterogeneity in individual mortality risks under a variety of assumptions about the age trajectory of those mortality risks. With these estimates of the degree of population heterogeneity it is possible to adjust comparisons of mortality risks across populations for the effects of population heterogeneity, differential mortality selection, and different age trajectories of the force of mortality. These methods are demonstrated by applying a variety of standard assumptions about the age trajectory of the force of mortality to the analysis of a broad range of cohort mortality data for the U.S. and Swedish populations. The estimates of the degree of heterogeneity, produced under all of the selected force of mortality models, consistently indicated a considerable degree of heterogeneity in mortality risks.
本文介绍了一些方法，这些方法在关于个体死亡风险年龄轨迹的各种假设下，生成个体死亡风险异质性程度的最大似然估计（MLE）。利用这些人群异质性程度的估计值，可以针对人群异质性、差异死亡选择以及死亡率力的不同年龄轨迹的影响，调整不同人群之间死亡风险的比较。通过将关于死亡率力年龄轨迹的各种标准假设应用于对美国和瑞典人群广泛队列死亡数据的分析，对这些方法进行了演示。在所有选定的死亡率力模型下得出的异质性程度估计值一致表明，死亡风险存在相当程度的异质性。
