Lai Shengjie, Ruktanonchai Nick W, Carioli Alessandra, Ruktanonchai Corrine W, Floyd Jessica R, Prosper Olivia, Zhang Chi, Du Xiangjun, Yang Weizhong, Tatem Andrew J
WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK.
Population Health Sciences, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA.
Engineering (Beijing). 2021 Jul;7(7):914-923. doi: 10.1016/j.eng.2021.03.017. Epub 2021 May 6.
Travel restrictions and physical distancing have been implemented across the world to mitigate the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, but studies are needed to understand their effectiveness across regions and time. Based on the population mobility metrics derived from mobile phone geolocation data across 135 countries or territories during the first wave of the pandemic in 2020, we built a metapopulation epidemiological model to measure the effect of travel and contact restrictions on containing COVID-19 outbreaks across regions. We found that if these interventions had not been deployed, the cumulative number of cases could have shown a 97-fold (interquartile range 79-116) increase, as of May 31, 2020. However, their effectiveness depended upon the timing, duration, and intensity of the interventions, with variations in case severity seen across populations, regions, and seasons. Additionally, before effective vaccines are widely available and herd immunity is achieved, our results emphasize that a certain degree of physical distancing at the relaxation of the intervention stage will likely be needed to avoid rapid resurgences and subsequent lockdowns.
世界各地已实施旅行限制和保持社交距离措施，以缓解2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行，但仍需要开展研究，以了解这些措施在不同地区和不同时期的有效性。基于2020年第一波疫情期间135个国家或地区手机地理位置数据得出的人口流动指标，我们构建了一个集合种群流行病学模型，以衡量旅行和接触限制对控制各地区COVID-19疫情的影响。我们发现，如果未采取这些干预措施，截至2020年5月31日，累计病例数可能会增加97倍（四分位距为79-116）。然而，其有效性取决于干预措施的时机、持续时间和强度，不同人群、地区和季节的病例严重程度存在差异。此外，在有效疫苗广泛可用并实现群体免疫之前，我们的结果强调，在干预措施放松阶段可能需要保持一定程度的社交距离，以避免疫情迅速反弹和随后的封锁。
