Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales del Sur, Universidad Nacional del Sur/CONICET (IIESS, UNS-CONICET), San Andrés 800, Bahía Blanca-Buenos Aires.
Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de Misiones, Ruta 12 Km 12.5, Posadas-Misiones.
Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol. 2021 Jun;37:100409. doi: 10.1016/j.sste.2021.100409. Epub 2021 Jan 28.
The 2019 novel coronavirus disease pandemic poses a serious threat. While its short-term effects are evident, its long-term consequences are a matter of analysis. In this work, the existence of long-lasting negative effects derived from exposure in utero to a great pandemic -1918 influenza pandemic- is analysed for the Argentine case. Outcomes of interest include educational achievement and unemployment status in adulthood -50 years after the pandemic. Based on a regression analysis, temporal differences in the spread of the pandemic and between close birth cohorts are exploited. The results indicate a significant reduction in educational achievement for people exposed in utero to the pandemic. In the region with the highest incidence of cases (Noroeste), this reduction is 0.5 years of education. There are no significant changes in the chances of being unemployed. In the context of climate change, these results constitute a call of attention for the implementation of child protection policies from gestation.
2019 年新型冠状病毒病大流行构成了严重威胁。虽然其短期影响显而易见，但长期后果仍有待分析。在这项工作中，分析了在子宫内暴露于大流行（1918 年流感大流行）的情况下，阿根廷会出现长期负面后果的情况。感兴趣的结果包括 50 年后的成年时期的教育成就和失业状况。基于回归分析，利用了大流行传播和同期出生队列之间的时间差异。结果表明，对于在子宫内暴露于大流行的人来说，教育成就明显下降。在病例发生率最高的地区（西北部），这一降幅为 0.5 年的教育。失业的几率没有明显变化。在气候变化的背景下，这些结果呼吁从妊娠开始实施儿童保护政策。
