Rotterdam School of Management, Finance Department, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Centre for Economic Policy Research, London, England.
PLoS One. 2021 May 14;16(5):e0251373. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0251373. eCollection 2021.
We investigate the effectiveness of business shutdowns to contain the Covid-19 disease. In March 2020, Italy shut down operations in selected sectors of its economy. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that municipalities with higher exposure to closed sectors experienced subsequently lower mortality rates. The implied life savings exceed 9,400 people over a period of less than a month. We also find that business closures exhibited rapidly diminishing returns and had large effects outside the closed businesses themselves, including spillovers to other municipalities. Overall, the results suggest business shutdowns are effective, but should be selectively implemented and centrally coordinated.
我们研究了商业关闭对遏制新冠疫情的效果。2020 年 3 月，意大利关闭了其经济中部分行业的运营。我们使用双重差分法发现，受关闭行业影响更大的市镇随后的死亡率更低。在不到一个月的时间内，这意味着挽救了超过 9400 人的生命。我们还发现，企业关闭的回报迅速递减，并且在关闭企业本身之外产生了巨大影响，包括对其他市镇的溢出效应。总的来说，研究结果表明商业关闭是有效的，但应选择性地实施并由中央协调。
