Production Engineering Department, Federal University of São Carlos (UFSCar), Rod. Washington Luís - Km 235, São Carlos, SP, 13565-905, Brazil.
Department of Economics, Federal University of Ouro Preto (UFOP), Mariana, 35420-000, Brazil.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Oct;28(37):51745-51762. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-14097-w. Epub 2021 May 15.
Since energy is one of the basic inputs for development, emerging economies should make an effort to investigate the environmental impacts of their fast economic growth. However, large emerging economies present significant regional heterogeneity that is usually uncounted for. This study uses the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) model and regional data on the 27 Brazilian states to investigate the growth-CO nexus under distinct development stages. To perform this analysis, we divided the states into three groups according to their average annual GDP (i.e., richer, intermediate, and poorer regions). The results suggest that richer and poorer regions, particularly, present economic and demographic developments that are environmentally costly. Also, population and per capita GDP have the largest influences on CO emissions. The roles of the industrial sector and the ascending service sector are also subject to criticism. Moreover, Brazil arguably suffers from technological stagnation as its energy intensity is growing and boosting CO emissions. We discuss the policy implications of these findings and suggest a future research agenda.
由于能源是发展的基本投入之一，新兴经济体应该努力研究其快速经济增长对环境的影响。然而，大型新兴经济体存在显著的区域异质性，而这通常是没有被考虑到的。本研究使用人口、富裕程度和技术的随机影响回归模型（STIRPAT）以及巴西 27 个州的区域数据，在不同的发展阶段研究增长与 CO2 排放的关系。为了进行这项分析，我们根据各州的平均年 GDP 将其分为三组（即较富裕、中等和较贫穷地区）。结果表明，特别是较富裕和较贫穷地区的经济和人口发展对环境造成了代价高昂的影响。此外，人口和人均 GDP 对 CO2 排放的影响最大。工业部门和上升的服务业部门的作用也受到批评。此外，巴西可能遭受技术停滞的困扰，因为其能源强度正在增加并推动 CO2 排放。我们讨论了这些发现的政策含义，并提出了未来的研究议程。
