Hwang Dr Tienyu
Edinburgh Napier University Business School, Craiglockhart Campus, Edinburgh EH14 1DJ, UK.
Technol Forecast Soc Change. 2021 Sep;170:120861. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120861. Epub 2021 May 16.
This paper analyses the effect of lockdown against the coronavirus which is one of the fastest growing threats in the world. We focus on three categories of lockdown and group four continents, Asia, America, Europe, and Africa together to assess the effectiveness of such a measure to contain the virus. We also look at a number of variables linked to the spread of the virus to determine the factors affecting the growth of new confirmed cases. We show evidence that countries in Europe are more likely to impose a national lockdown than any other continent. For the empirical analysis, we undertake the cross-sectional regression model, logistic regression model and logistic growth curve as a method to apply the data collected over the period March to June 2020 as this is the data available at the time this paper is composed. The empirical results of this paper indicate that countries which impose the strictest form of lockdown will result in a reduction in growth of new confirmed cases.
本文分析了封锁措施应对冠状病毒的效果,冠状病毒是全球增长最快的威胁之一。我们聚焦于三类封锁措施,并将亚洲、美洲、欧洲和非洲四大洲合并起来,以评估这一措施遏制病毒的有效性。我们还研究了一些与病毒传播相关的变量,以确定影响新增确诊病例增长的因素。我们有证据表明,欧洲国家比其他任何大洲的国家更有可能实施全国性封锁。对于实证分析,我们采用横截面回归模型、逻辑回归模型和逻辑增长曲线,将2020年3月至6月期间收集的数据作为应用方法,因为这是撰写本文时可获得的数据。本文的实证结果表明,实施最严格封锁形式的国家将导致新增确诊病例增长减少。