Institute of Theoretical Physics, Goethe University, 60438, Frankfurt, Germany.
Vivantes Klinikum Spandau, 13585, Berlin, Germany.
Sci Rep. 2021 Mar 25;11(1):6848. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-86072-x.
The rapid spread of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) confronts policy makers with the problem of measuring the effectiveness of containment strategies, balancing public health considerations with the economic costs of social distancing measures. We introduce a modified epidemic model that we name the controlled-SIR model, in which the disease reproduction rate evolves dynamically in response to political and societal reactions. An analytic solution is presented. The model reproduces official COVID-19 cases counts of a large number of regions and countries that surpassed the first peak of the outbreak. A single unbiased feedback parameter is extracted from field data and used to formulate an index that measures the efficiency of containment strategies (the CEI index). CEI values for a range of countries are given. For two variants of the controlled-SIR model, detailed estimates of the total medical and socio-economic costs are evaluated over the entire course of the epidemic. Costs comprise medical care cost, the economic cost of social distancing, as well as the economic value of lives saved. Under plausible parameters, strict measures fare better than a hands-off policy. Strategies based on current case numbers lead to substantially higher total costs than strategies based on the overall history of the epidemic.
冠状病毒（COVID-19）的迅速传播使政策制定者面临着衡量遏制策略有效性的问题，需要在公共卫生考虑与社会隔离措施的经济成本之间取得平衡。我们引入了一个改良的传染病模型，我们将其命名为受控 SIR 模型，其中疾病繁殖率会根据政治和社会反应动态变化。我们给出了一个解析解。该模型再现了大量地区和国家的官方 COVID-19 病例数，这些地区和国家的病例数已经超过了疫情的第一个高峰。从实地数据中提取出一个单一的无偏反馈参数，并用于制定一个衡量遏制策略效率的指数（CEI 指数）。我们给出了一系列国家的 CEI 值。对于受控 SIR 模型的两个变体，我们在整个疫情期间对总医疗和社会经济成本进行了详细估计。成本包括医疗费用、社会隔离的经济成本以及挽救生命的经济价值。在合理的参数下，严格的措施比不干预政策效果更好。基于当前病例数的策略比基于疫情整体历史的策略会导致更高的总成本。
