Fares Mohamad Y, Musharrafieh Umayya, Bizri Abdul Rahman
College of Medical, Veterinary, and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, Scotland UK.
Faculty of Medicine, American University of Beirut Medical Center, Beirut, Lebanon.
Z Gesundh Wiss. 2023;31(4):575-581. doi: 10.1007/s10389-021-01562-6. Epub 2021 May 22.
On August 4, 2020, a massive explosion hit Lebanon's capital city, Beirut. The aim of this study was to explore the effect of the Beirut blast on the COVID-19 situation in the country.
Data on COVID-19 were retrieved from the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health (LMOPH), where all the COVID-19 positive cases were reported. The study was divided into two periods, considering the incubation period of the COVID-19 virus: (July 27-August 9, 2020) and (August 10-23, 2020). Information obtained included daily number of cases, tests, deaths, hospitalized patients, intensive care unit (ICU) patients, and mode of acquisition (local vs. expat). Daily positivity rates were reported per 100 tests. An independent sample t-test and a Joinpoint regression analysis were used to determine significance. A value less than 0.05 was considered significant.
A total of 201,010 tests were conducted during our studied period, with 8993 positive cases, constituting a total positivity rate of 4.5 per 100 tests. Case fatality rate over the studied period was 0.8%. The positivity rate of the period prior to August 10, 2020, was 2.7 per 100 tests, significantly less than that of the period following the explosion, which was 6.4 per 100 tests ( < 0.001). During our studied period, daily positivity rates were significantly increasing at a slope of 0.29 ( < 0.001). A significant increase in slope was noted on August 13, 2020 ( < 0.001). The number of hospitalized patients increased from 139 patients on July 27 to 266 on August 23, 2020, and that of ICU patients increased from 36 to 75.
The port of Beirut explosion resulted in a significant increase in the daily number of positive COVID-19 cases. The aftermath of the explosion, the damage to healthcare facilities, and the overcrowding due to emergency efforts were contributing factors to that increase.
2020年8月4日，黎巴嫩首都贝鲁特发生大规模爆炸。本研究旨在探讨贝鲁特爆炸对该国新冠疫情的影响。
新冠疫情数据取自黎巴嫩公共卫生部（LMOPH），所有新冠阳性病例均在此上报。考虑到新冠病毒的潜伏期，本研究分为两个时期：（2020年7月27日至8月9日）和（2020年8月10日至23日）。获取的信息包括每日病例数、检测数、死亡数、住院患者数、重症监护病房（ICU）患者数以及感染途径（本地感染与境外输入）。报告每100次检测的每日阳性率。采用独立样本t检验和Joinpoint回归分析来确定显著性。P值小于0.05被视为具有显著性。
在我们的研究期间共进行了201,010次检测，其中8993例阳性病例，每100次检测的总阳性率为4.5%。研究期间的病死率为0.8%。2020年8月10日前的阳性率为每100次检测2.7%，显著低于爆炸后的时期，即每100次检测6.4%（P<0.001）。在我们的研究期间，每日阳性率以0.29的斜率显著上升（P<0.001）。2020年8月13日观察到斜率显著增加（P<0.001）。住院患者数从7月27日的139例增加到2020年8月23日的266例，ICU患者数从36例增加到75例。
贝鲁特港口爆炸导致新冠阳性病例每日数量显著增加。爆炸后果、医疗设施受损以及应急工作导致的过度拥挤是造成这一增加的因素。
