Centre for Dermatooncology, Department of Dermatology, Eberhard Karls University, Tuebingen, Germany.
Institute of Clinical Epidemiology, University Hospital Schleswig-Holstein, Campus Luebeck, Luebeck, Germany.
Eur J Cancer. 2023 Apr;183:60-68. doi: 10.1016/j.ejca.2023.01.017. Epub 2023 Jan 28.
Cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) incidences are increasing but scarcely available separated. We analysed incidence rates of cSCC over three decades with an extrapolation to 2040.
Cancer registries from the Netherlands, Scotland and two federal states of Germany (Saarland/Schleswig-Holstein) were sourced for separate cSCC incidence data. Incidence and mortality trends between 1989/90 and 2020 were assessed using Joinpoint regression models. Modified age-period-cohort models were applied to predict incidence rates up to 2044. Rates were age-standardised using the new European standard population (2013).
Age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR, per 100,000 persons per year) increased in all populations. The annual percent increase ranged between 2.4% and 5.7%. The highest increase occurred in the age groups ≥60 years, especially in men aged ≥80 years, with a three to 5-fold increase. Extrapolations up to 2044 showed an unrestrained increase in incidence rates in all countries investigated. Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) showed slight increases between 1.4 and 3.2% per year in Saarland and Schleswig-Holstein for both sexes and for men in Scotland. For the Netherlands, ASMRs remained stable for women but declined for men.
There was a continuous increase of cSCC incidence over three decades with no tendency for levelling-off, especially in the older populations as males ≥80 years. Extrapolations point to a further increasing number of cSCC up to 2044, especially among ≥60 years. This will have a significant impact on the current and future burden on dermatologic health care which will be faced with major challenges.
皮肤鳞状细胞癌 (cSCC) 的发病率正在上升，但很少有单独的数据。我们分析了过去三十年 cSCC 的发病率，并进行了外推至 2040 年。
从荷兰、苏格兰和德国的两个联邦州（萨尔州/石勒苏益格-荷尔斯泰因州）的癌症登记处获取了单独的 cSCC 发病率数据。使用 Joinpoint 回归模型评估了 1989/90 年至 2020 年期间的发病率和死亡率趋势。应用修正的年龄-时期-队列模型预测至 2044 年的发病率。使用新的欧洲标准人口（2013 年）对发病率进行年龄标准化。
所有人群的年龄标准化发病率（ASIR，每 10 万人每年）均呈上升趋势。年百分比增长率在 2.4%至 5.7%之间。增长最高的是≥60 岁年龄组，尤其是≥80 岁的男性，增长了 3 至 5 倍。所有研究国家的外推至 2044 年的发病率均显示出无限制的增长。男女两性在萨尔州和石勒苏益格-荷尔斯泰因州以及苏格兰男性的年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）每年分别略有增加 1.4%至 3.2%。荷兰女性的 ASMR 保持稳定，而男性则下降。
过去三十年中，cSCC 的发病率持续上升，没有趋于平稳的趋势，尤其是在≥80 岁的老年人群中。外推表明至 2044 年 cSCC 的数量将进一步增加，尤其是在≥60 岁的人群中。这将对皮肤科保健的当前和未来负担产生重大影响，皮肤科保健将面临重大挑战。
