Ling Chaohao, Li Yongfei
State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology Chinese Academy of Sciences Nanjing China.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China.
Geohealth. 2021 May 1;5(5):e2021GH000408. doi: 10.1029/2021GH000408. eCollection 2021 May.
The human movement and economic activities have been drastically reduced due to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, leading to the sharp decreases of pollutant emissions and remarkable air quality improvement. Nevertheless, however, the changes of gaseous pollutant concentrations and health effects across China during the COVID-19 lockdown period remained poorly understood. Here, a random forest model was applied to assess the impact of COVID-19 lockdown on pollutant concentrations and potential health effects. The results suggested that estimated NO, SO, and CO concentrations in China during January 23-March 31, 2020 decreased by 13.68%, 25.71%, and 7.42%, respectively compared with the same periods in 2018-2019. Nonetheless, the predicted 8-h O concentrations across China suffered from 1.29% increases during this period. The avoided premature all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory disease (RD), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortalities induced by NO decrease during COVID-19 lockdown period reached 3,954 (3,076-4,832), 635 (468-801), 612 (459-765), and 920 (653-1,186) cases. However, the increases of all-cause, CVD, RD, and COPD mortalities due to O increase during COVID-19 lockdown period achieved 462 (250-674), 79 (29-129), 40 (-25-105), and 52 (-34-138) cases. The natural experiment demonstrated the drastic emission reduction measures could significantly decrease the NO, SO, and CO concentrations, while they significantly elevated the O concentration. It is highly imperative to propose more coordinated air pollution control strategies to control O pollution.
由于2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）疫情爆发，人类活动和经济活动大幅减少，导致污染物排放量急剧下降，空气质量显著改善。然而，在COVID-19封锁期间，中国气态污染物浓度的变化及其对健康的影响仍知之甚少。在此，应用随机森林模型评估COVID-19封锁对污染物浓度和潜在健康影响。结果表明，与2018 - 2019年同期相比，2020年1月23日至3月31日期间中国估计的一氧化氮（NO）、二氧化硫（SO）和一氧化碳（CO）浓度分别下降了13.68%、25.71%和7.42%。尽管如此，在此期间中国预测的8小时臭氧（O₃）浓度却上升了1.29%。COVID-19封锁期间因NO减少而避免的过早全因、心血管疾病（CVD）、呼吸系统疾病（RD）和慢性阻塞性肺疾病（COPD）死亡人数分别达到3954例（3076 - 4832例）、635例（468 - 801例）、612例（459 - 765例）和920例（653 - 1186例）。然而，COVID-19封锁期间因O₃增加导致的全因、CVD、RD和COPD死亡人数增加分别为462例（250 - 674例）、79例（29 - 129例）、40例（ - 25 - 105例）和52例（ - 34 - 138例）。该自然实验表明，严厉的减排措施可显著降低NO、SO和CO浓度，但同时也显著提高了O₃浓度。提出更协调的空气污染控制策略以控制O₃污染迫在眉睫。
