Department of Orthopedics, Xianyang Central Hospital, Xianyang, 712000, China.
Clinical Medical Research Center, Xianyang Central Hospital, Xianyang, 712000, China.
BMC Musculoskelet Disord. 2021 Jun 9;22(1):529. doi: 10.1186/s12891-021-04414-2.
The prognosis of lung metastasis (LM) in patients with chondrosarcoma was poor. The aim of this study was to construct a prognostic nomogram to predict the risk of LM, which was imperative and helpful for clinical diagnosis and treatment.
Data of all chondrosarcoma patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2016 was queried from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. In this retrospective study, a total of 944 patients were enrolled and randomly splitting into training sets (n = 644) and validation cohorts(n = 280) at a ratio of 7:3. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the prognostic nomogram. The predictive ability of the nomogram model was assessed by calibration plots and receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) curve, while decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve (CIC) were applied to measure predictive accuracy and clinical practice. Moreover, the nomogram was validated by the internal cohort.
Five independent risk factors including age, sex, marital, tumor size, and lymph node involvement were identified by univariate and multivariable logistic regression. Calibration plots indicated great discrimination power of nomogram, while DCA and CIC presented that the nomogram had great clinical utility. In addition, receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) curve provided a predictive ability in the training sets (AUC = 0.789, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.789-0.808) and the validation cohorts (AUC = 0.796, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.744-0.841).
In our study, the nomogram accurately predicted risk factors of LM in patients with chondrosarcoma, which may guide surgeons and oncologists to optimize individual treatment and make a better clinical decisions.
JOSR-D-20-02045, 29 Dec 2020.
软骨肉瘤患者肺转移（LM）的预后较差。本研究旨在构建一种预测 LM 风险的预后列线图，这对于临床诊断和治疗至关重要。
从监测、流行病学和最终结果（SEER）数据库中查询了 2010 年至 2016 年间诊断的所有软骨肉瘤患者的数据。在这项回顾性研究中，共纳入 944 例患者，按照 7:3 的比例分为训练集（n=644）和验证队列（n=280）。使用单变量和多变量逻辑回归分析来确定预后列线图。通过校准图和受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线评估列线图模型的预测能力，同时应用决策曲线分析（DCA）和临床影响曲线（CIC）来衡量预测准确性和临床实践。此外，还通过内部队列验证了该列线图。
单变量和多变量逻辑回归分析确定了 5 个独立的风险因素，包括年龄、性别、婚姻状况、肿瘤大小和淋巴结受累情况。校准图表明列线图具有很好的区分能力，而 DCA 和 CIC 表明列线图具有很好的临床实用性。此外，ROC 曲线在训练集（AUC=0.789，95%置信区间[CI] 0.789-0.808）和验证队列（AUC=0.796，95%置信区间[CI] 0.744-0.841）中提供了预测能力。
在本研究中，该列线图准确预测了软骨肉瘤患者 LM 的危险因素，这可能有助于指导外科医生和肿瘤学家优化个体化治疗并做出更好的临床决策。
JOSR-D-20-02045，2020 年 12 月 29 日。
