Hoogeveen Martijn J, Hoogeveen Ellen K
Department Technical Sciences & Environment, Open University, the Netherlands.
Department of Internal Medicine, Jeroen Bosch Hospital, Den Bosch, the Netherlands.
One Health. 2021 Dec;13:100277. doi: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2021.100277. Epub 2021 Jun 8.
During the first wave of COVID-19 it was hypothesized that COVID-19 is subject to multi-wave seasonality, similar to Influenza-Like Illnesses since time immemorial. One year into the pandemic, we aimed to test the seasonality hypothesis for COVID-19.
We calculated the average annual time-series for Influenza-Like Illnesses based on incidence data from 2016 till 2019 in the Netherlands, and compared these with two COVID-19 time-series during 2020/2021 for the Netherlands. We plotted the time-series on a standardized logarithmic infection scale. Finally, we calculated correlation coefficients and used univariate regression analysis to estimate the strength of the association between the time-series of COVID-19 and Influenza-Like Illnesses.
The time-series for COVID-19 and Influenza-Like Illnesses were strongly and highly significantly correlated. The COVID-19 peaks were all during flu season, and lows were all in the opposing period. Finally, COVID-19 meets the multi-wave characteristics of earlier flu-like pandemics, namely a short first wave at the tail-end of a flu season, and a longer and more intense second wave during the subsequent flu season.
We conclude that seasonal patterns of COVID-19 incidence and Influenza-Like Illnesses incidence are highly similar, in a country in the temperate climate zone, such as the Netherlands. Further, the COVID-19 pandemic satisfies the criteria of earlier respiratory pandemics, namely a first wave that is short-lived at the tail-end of flu season, and a second wave that is longer and more severe.This seems to imply that the same factors that are driving the seasonality of Influenza-Like Illnesses are causing COVID-19 seasonality as well, such as solar radiation (UV), temperature, relative humidity, and subsequently seasonal allergens and allergies.
在新冠疫情的第一波期间，有人提出假设，认为新冠病毒与自古以来的流感样疾病一样，会出现多波季节性流行。在疫情爆发一年之际，我们旨在验证新冠病毒的季节性假设。
我们根据荷兰2016年至2019年的发病率数据计算了流感样疾病的年均时间序列，并将其与荷兰2020/2021年期间的两个新冠病毒时间序列进行比较。我们将时间序列绘制在标准化对数感染量表上。最后，我们计算了相关系数，并使用单变量回归分析来估计新冠病毒时间序列与流感样疾病时间序列之间关联的强度。
新冠病毒和流感样疾病的时间序列呈强且高度显著相关。新冠病毒的高峰均出现在流感季节，低谷均出现在相反时期。最后，新冠病毒呈现出早期类似流感大流行的多波特征，即在流感季节末期有一个短暂的第一波，在随后的流感季节有一个更长且更强烈的第二波。
我们得出结论，在温带气候区的一个国家，如荷兰，新冠病毒发病率和流感样疾病发病率的季节性模式高度相似。此外，新冠疫情符合早期呼吸道大流行的标准，即第一波在流感季节末期短暂出现，第二波更长且更严重。这似乎意味着，驱动流感样疾病季节性的相同因素也导致了新冠病毒的季节性，如太阳辐射（紫外线）、温度、相对湿度，以及随后的季节性过敏原和过敏反应。
