School of Public Administration, Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology, Xi'an, 710000, China.
Department of Economics, University of Haripur, Haripur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Nov;28(42):59792-59804. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-14817-2. Epub 2021 Jun 19.
The adverse effects of the coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic are widely visible in the economic structure, while the principal causal factor is the disruption of the supply chain process that leads to the economies into a global depression. The purpose of the study is to identify the critical factors that affect the global sustainable supply chain process in the cross-sectional panel of 38 European countries, 14 North American countries, 40 Asian countries, and a heterogeneous panel of 111 countries. The results show that an increase in susceptible coronavirus cases and death tolls limits the supply chain process because of nationwide closures of industries and business activities. In contrast, an increase in the number of recovered cases supports economic activities and improved logistic performance index across countries. The innovation accounting matrix shows that since August 2020, the global coronavirus cases will decline and start resuming economic activities to increase the supply chain process. The result is further supported by the estimates of reduction in the proportion of death to recovered cases (case fatality ratio 1) to increase sustainable logistics activities. However, the supply chain process could affect an increasing death toll and case fatality ratio 2 (i.e., the proportion of death to registered cases) over time. The global economies should ensure a free flow of sustainable logistics supply, especially the supply of healthcare medical equipment that would help control the coronavirus pandemic, which escapes from the nations from a global depression.
2019 年冠状病毒（COVID-19）大流行对经济结构的负面影响是显而易见的，而主要的因果因素是供应链过程的中断，这导致了全球经济陷入衰退。本研究的目的是确定影响全球可持续供应链过程的关键因素，该研究使用了来自 38 个欧洲国家、14 个北美国家、40 个亚洲国家以及一个由 111 个国家组成的异质面板的横截面面板数据。结果表明，冠状病毒易感染病例和死亡人数的增加限制了供应链过程，因为全国范围内的工业和商业活动关闭。相比之下，康复病例数量的增加支持了各国的经济活动和物流绩效指数的提高。创新核算矩阵表明，自 2020 年 8 月以来，全球冠状病毒病例将减少，并开始恢复经济活动以增加供应链过程。这一结果还得到了减少死亡人数与康复人数比例（病死率 1）以增加可持续物流活动的估计的支持。然而，随着时间的推移，供应链过程可能会导致死亡人数和病死率 2（即死亡人数与登记病例数的比例）不断增加。全球经济应确保可持续物流供应的自由流动，特别是医疗设备的供应，这将有助于控制冠状病毒大流行，使其免受全球经济衰退的影响。
