Environmental Pollution and Climate Program, Kuwait Institute for Research and Science, Safat, Kuwait.
Department of Meteorology, Directorate General of Civil Aviation, Safat, Kuwait.
Integr Environ Assess Manag. 2022 Mar;18(2):500-516. doi: 10.1002/ieam.4481. Epub 2021 Aug 18.
The rapid outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has affected millions of people all over the world and killed hundreds of thousands. Atmospheric conditions can play a fundamental role in the transmission of a virus. The relationship between several atmospheric variables and the transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are therefore investigated in this study, in which the State of Kuwait, which has a hot, arid climate, is considered during free movement (without restriction), partial lockdown (partial restrictions), and full lockdown (full restriction). The relationship between the infection rate, growth rate, and doubling time for SARS-CoV-2 and atmospheric variables are also investigated in this study. Daily data describing the number of COVID-19 cases and atmospheric variables, such as temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, visibility, and solar radiation, were collected for the period February 24 to May 30, 2020. Stochastic models were employed to analyze how atmospheric variables can affect the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. The normal and lognormal probability and cumulative density functions (PDF and CDF) were applied to analyze the relationship between atmospheric variables and COVID-19 cases. The Spearman's rank correlation test and multiple regression model were used to investigate the correlation of the studied variables with the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and to confirm the findings obtained from the stochastic models. The results indicate that relative humidity had a significant negative correlation with the number of COVID-19 cases, whereas positive correlations were observed for cases of infection and temperature, wind speed, and visibility. The infection rate for SARS-CoV-2 is directly proportional to the air temperature, wind speed, and visibility, whereas inversely related to the humidity. The lowest growth rate and longest doubling time of the COVID-19 infection occurred during the full lockdown period. The results in this study may help the World Health Organization (WHO) make specific recommendations about the outbreak of COVID-19 for decision-makers around the world. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2022;18:500-516. © 2021 SETAC.
冠状病毒病 (COVID-19) 的迅速爆发已经影响了全球数百万人，并导致数十万人死亡。大气条件可以在病毒传播中发挥根本作用。因此，本研究调查了几种大气变量与严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒 2 (SARS-CoV-2) 的传播之间的关系，其中科威特国在自由移动（无限制）、部分封锁（部分限制）和完全封锁（完全限制）期间被视为研究对象。本研究还调查了 SARS-CoV-2 的感染率、增长率和倍增时间与大气变量之间的关系。本研究收集了 2020 年 2 月 24 日至 5 月 30 日期间描述 COVID-19 病例和大气变量（如温度、相对湿度、风速、能见度和太阳辐射）的每日数据。采用随机模型来分析大气变量如何影响 SARS-CoV-2 的传播。正态和对数正态概率和累积密度函数 (PDF 和 CDF) 被应用于分析大气变量与 COVID-19 病例之间的关系。Spearman 等级相关检验和多元回归模型用于研究研究变量与 SARS-CoV-2 传播的相关性，并确认随机模型得出的结果。结果表明，相对湿度与 COVID-19 病例数呈显著负相关，而感染病例与温度、风速和能见度呈正相关。SARS-CoV-2 的感染率与空气温度、风速和能见度成正比，而与湿度成反比。COVID-19 感染的最低增长率和最长倍增时间发生在完全封锁期间。本研究的结果可能有助于世界卫生组织 (WHO) 为全球决策者就 COVID-19 的爆发提出具体建议。综合环境评估与管理 2022；18:500-516。© 2021 SETAC。
