Callister Paul, McLachlan Robert I
Institute of Governance and Policy Studies, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand.
School of Mathematical and Computational Sciences, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand.
J R Soc N Z. 2023 May 25;54(4):412-432. doi: 10.1080/03036758.2023.2212174. eCollection 2024.
Prior to COVID, the global aviation industry was growing rapidly. Growth has now resumed and is predicted to continue for at least the next three decades. Aotearoa New Zealand has particularly high aviation emissions and has been on a very rapid growth path that is incompatible with the Paris Agreement on climate change. Government, intergovernmental, nongovernmental, academic and industry sources have proposed technological innovations to address aviation emissions. These include sustainable aviation fuels, electric and hydrogen powered aircraft, and increases in efficiency. We review these and assess that none of them will lead to a significant reduction in emissions in the short to medium term. In addition, we demonstrate that even very aggressive uptake of new technology results in the New Zealand aviation sector exceeding its share of the carbon budget as determined by the Paris Agreement. Therefore, we examine the fundamental drivers of growth in aviation: the tourism and airport industries, emissions pricing and substitutes, and the distribution of air travel. Governance of this sector is challenging, but it is changing rapidly. We conclude that a national aviation action plan needs to be developed and implemented based on the 'Avoid/Shift/Improve' framework in use in other areas of transportation planning.
在新冠疫情之前，全球航空业发展迅速。如今增长已经恢复，预计至少在未来三十年还将持续。新西兰的航空排放特别高，且一直处于与《巴黎气候变化协定》不相容的快速增长轨道。政府、政府间组织、非政府组织、学术界和行业机构都提出了应对航空排放的技术创新方案。这些方案包括可持续航空燃料、电动和氢动力飞机以及提高效率。我们对这些方案进行了审视，并评估认为短期内它们都无法显著减少排放。此外，我们还表明，即使新技术得到非常积极的采用，新西兰航空业仍将超出《巴黎协定》确定的其在碳预算中的份额。因此，我们审视了航空业增长的根本驱动因素：旅游业和机场行业、排放定价与替代品以及航空旅行的分布情况。该行业的治理颇具挑战性，但变化迅速。我们的结论是，需要根据交通规划其他领域采用的“避免/转移/改善”框架制定并实施国家航空行动计划。
