Division of Infectious Disease Preparedness, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark; Department of Epidemiology Research, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Department of Epidemiology Research, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Lancet Infect Dis. 2021 Nov;21(11):1507-1517. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(21)00290-5. Epub 2021 Jun 23.
BACKGROUND: The more infectious SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 rapidly spread in Europe after December, 2020, and a concern that B.1.1.7 could cause more severe disease has been raised. Taking advantage of Denmark's high RT-PCR testing and whole genome sequencing capacities, we used national health register data to assess the risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation in individuals infected with B.1.1.7 compared with those with other SARS-CoV-2 lineages. METHODS: We did an observational cohort study of all SARS-CoV-2-positive cases confirmed by RT-PCR in Denmark, sampled between Jan 1 and March 24, 2021, with 14 days of follow-up for COVID-19 hospitalisation. Cases were identified in the national COVID-19 surveillance system database, which includes data from the Danish Microbiology Database (RT-PCR test results), the Danish COVID-19 Genome Consortium, the National Patient Registry, the Civil Registration System, as well as other nationwide registers. Among all cases, COVID-19 hospitalisation was defined as first admission lasting longer than 12 h within 14 days of a sample with a positive RT-PCR result. The study population and main analysis were restricted to the proportion of cases with viral genome data. We calculated the risk ratio (RR) of admission according to infection with B.1.1.7 versus other co-existing lineages with a Poisson regression model with robust SEs, adjusted a priori for sex, age, calendar time, region, and comorbidities. The contribution of each covariate to confounding of the crude RR was evaluated afterwards by a stepwise forward inclusion. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1 and March 24, 2021, 50 958 individuals with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test and at least 14 days of follow-up for hospitalisation were identified; 30 572 (60·0%) had genome data, of whom 10 544 (34·5%) were infected with B.1.1.7. 1944 (6·4%) individuals had a COVID-19 hospitalisation and of these, 571 (29·4%) had a B.1.1.7 infection and 1373 (70·6%) had an infection with other SARS-CoV-2 lineages. Although the overall number of hospitalisations decreased during the study period, the proportion of individuals infected with B.1.1.7 increased from 3·5% to 92·1% per week. B.1.1.7 was associated with a crude RR of hospital admission of 0·79 (95% CI 0·72-0·87; p<0·0001) and an adjusted RR of 1·42 (95% CI 1·25-1·60; p<0·0001). The adjusted RR was increased in all strata of age and calendar period-the two covariates with the largest contribution to confounding of the crude RR. INTERPRETATION: Infection with SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 was associated with an increased risk of hospitalisation compared with that of other lineages in an analysis adjusted for covariates. The overall effect on hospitalisations in Denmark was lessened due to a strict lockdown, but our findings could support hospital preparedness and modelling of the projected impact of the epidemic in countries with uncontrolled spread of B.1.1.7. FUNDING: None.
背景:2020 年 12 月后,传染性更强的 SARS-CoV-2 谱系 B.1.1.7 在欧洲迅速传播,人们担心 B.1.1.7 可能导致更严重的疾病。利用丹麦高比例的 RT-PCR 检测和全基因组测序能力,我们利用国家健康登记数据评估了与其他 SARS-CoV-2 谱系相比,感染 B.1.1.7 的个体因 COVID-19 住院的风险。
方法:我们对 2021 年 1 月 1 日至 3 月 24 日期间丹麦通过 RT-PCR 确诊的所有 SARS-CoV-2 阳性病例进行了一项观察性队列研究,随访时间为 COVID-19 住院后 14 天。病例是从国家 COVID-19 监测系统数据库中确定的,该数据库包括丹麦微生物学数据库(RT-PCR 检测结果)、丹麦 COVID-19 基因组联盟、国家患者登记处、民事登记系统以及其他全国性登记处的数据。在所有病例中,COVID-19 住院定义为阳性 RT-PCR 结果样本后 14 天内持续 12 小时以上的首次入院。研究人群和主要分析仅限于具有病毒基因组数据的病例比例。我们使用泊松回归模型和稳健 SEs 计算了感染 B.1.1.7 与其他共存谱系相比住院的风险比(RR),并在事先调整了性别、年龄、日历时间、地区和合并症。随后通过逐步正向纳入评估每个协变量对粗 RR 的混杂作用。
发现:2021 年 1 月 1 日至 3 月 24 日期间,确定了 50958 名 SARS-CoV-2 检测阳性且至少有 14 天住院随访的个体;其中 30572 名(60.0%)有基因组数据,其中 10544 名(34.5%)感染了 B.1.1.7。1944 名(6.4%)个体发生 COVID-19 住院,其中 571 名(29.4%)感染了 B.1.1.7,1373 名(70.6%)感染了其他 SARS-CoV-2 谱系。尽管在此期间住院人数总体减少,但感染 B.1.1.7 的个体比例每周从 3.5%增加到 92.1%。B.1.1.7 与住院入院的粗 RR 为 0.79(95%CI 0.72-0.87;p<0.0001)和调整后的 RR 为 1.42(95%CI 1.25-1.60;p<0.0001)相关。在所有年龄和日历期分层中,调整后的 RR 均增加-这两个协变量对粗 RR 的混杂作用最大。
解释:在调整了协变量的分析中,与其他谱系相比,感染 SARS-CoV-2 谱系 B.1.1.7 与住院风险增加相关。由于严格的封锁,丹麦整体住院的影响减轻,但我们的发现可以支持医院的准备工作和对 B.1.1.7 传播不受控制的国家疫情预期影响的建模。
资金:无。
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